Market Analysis
Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 16/12/24
Monday 16 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | 
|
Retail Sales |
|
4.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| 07:00 | 
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
3.7% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
1.2% | ||
| 09:00 | 
|
ZEW Investor Sentiment | -12.4 | |||
| 10:00 | 
|
CPI Final Month on Month | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | |
| 10:00 |
|
CPI Final Year on Year | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | |
| 13:15 | 
|
House Starts Annualized |
|
240.8k | 245.1k | 262.4k |
| 23:30 | 
|
Consumer Sentiment |
|
5.3% | -2.0% |
Tuesday 17 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Year on Year |
|
4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% |
| 07:00 |
|
Unemployment Rate (ILO) |
|
4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
3.7% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
Claimant Count Unemployment Change |
|
26.7k | +0.3k | |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
1.2% | ||
| 09:00 | 
|
IFO Business Climate Expectations |
|
87.2 | 87.5 | 84.4 |
| 09:00 |
|
ZEW Investor Sentiment | -12.4 | |||
| 09:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-1.175Bln EU | -0.660Bln EU | |
| 10:00 |
|
ZEW Economic sentiment |
|
7.4 | 6.5 | 15.7 |
| 10:00 |
|
ZEW Current Conditions |
|
-91.4 | -93.0 | -93.1 |
| 10:00 | 
|
Trade Balance |
|
12.5Bln EU | +6.8Bln EU | |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Month on Month |
|
0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Year on Year |
|
2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI BoC Core Year on Year |
|
1.7% | +1.6% | |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Boc Core Month on Month |
|
0.4% | -0.1% | |
| 13:30 | 
|
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 14:15 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month |
|
-0.3% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 15:00 |
|
Business Inventories Month on Month |
|
0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 23:50 | 
|
Imports Year on Year |
|
0.4% | 1.0% | -3.8% |
| 23:50 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-461.2Bln JP | -688.9Bln JP | -117.6Bln JP |
| 23:50 |
|
Exports Year on Year |
|
3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% |
Wednesday 18 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
RPI Year on Year |
|
3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| 07:00 |
|
PPI Core Month on Month (nsa) |
|
0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
1.2% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
CPI Month on Month |
|
0.6% | 0.1% | +0.1% |
| 07:00 |
|
PPI Core Year on Year (nsa) |
|
1.7% | 1.6% | |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
3.7% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
CPI Year on Year |
|
2.3% | 2.6% | +2.6% |
| 07:00 |
|
RPI Month on Month |
|
0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 09:00 |
|
ZEW Investor Sentiment | -12.4 | |||
| 10:00 |
|
CPI Final Month on Month |
|
0.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| 10:00 |
|
CPI Final Year on Year |
|
2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| 13:30 |
|
Housing Starts |
|
1.311Mln | 1.343Mln | 1.289Mln |
| 13:30 |
|
Current Account Balance |
|
-266.8Bln US | -284.0Bln US | -310.9Bln US |
| 15:30 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -1.425Mln | -1.635Mln | -0.934Mln | |
| 19:00 |
|
FOMC Rate Decision | 4.625% | 4.375% | 4.25 - 4.50% |
Thursday 19 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
GFK Consumer Confidence |
|
-23.3 | -22.5 | -21.3 |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
1.2% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
3.7% | ||
| 09:00 |
|
ZEW Investor Sentiment | -12.4 | |||
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Unchanged | 1 | 8 | 6 | |
| 12:00 |
|
BoE Rate Decision |
|
4.75% | 4.75% | 4.75% |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Hike | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Cut | 8 | 1 | 3 | |
| 13:30 |
|
Weekly Jobless Claims |
|
242k | 230k | 220k |
| 13:30 |
|
GDP Final |
|
2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| 13:30 |
|
GDP Deflator |
|
1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 13:30 |
|
Philadelphia Fed Business Index |
|
-5.5 | 3.0 | -16.4 |
| 13:30 |
|
Corporate Profits |
|
0.0% | -0.4% | |
| 15:00 |
|
Existing Home Sales |
|
3.96Mln | 4.07Mln | 4.15Mln |
| 23:30 |
|
CPI Overall Nationwide |
|
2.3% | 2.9% | |
| 23:30 |
|
CPI Core Nationwide Year on Year |
|
2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
Friday 20 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
Public Sector Net Borrowing | 17.354Bln GB | 11.249Bln GB | ||
| 07:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 07:00 |
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
-1.1% | -0.3% | +0.1% |
| 07:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
-0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 07:00 |
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
0.2% | 0.3% | +0.5% |
| 07:45 | 
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
0.9% | 3.2% | |
| 09:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence | 96.6 | 97.0 | 96.3 | |
| 09:00 |
|
ZEW Investor Sentiment | -12.4 | |||
| 11:00 |
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
-2.8% | -0.5% | |
| 11:00 |
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year |
|
2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Spending Real Month on Month |
|
0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Year on Year |
|
2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Income Month on Month |
|
0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 14:00 |
|
Dallas Fed PCE |
|
2.3% | 1.8% | |
| 15:00 |
|
Univ Michigan Conditions |
|
77.7 | 75.1 | |
| 15:00 |
|
Univ Michigan Sentiment |
|
74.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 |
| 15:00 |
|
Univ Michigan Expectation |
|
71.6 | 73.3 |
Saturday 21 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 |
|
ZEW Investor Sentiment | -12.4 |
Monday 23 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
GDP Final Quarter on Quarter |
|
0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 07:00 |
|
GDP Final Year on Year | 1.0% | 1.0% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
Current Account |
|
-28.397Bln GB | -22.750Bln GB | |
| 13:30 |
|
Industrial PPI Month on Month |
|
1.2% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Industrial PPI Year on Year |
|
1.1% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
GDP Month on Month |
|
0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 15:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
|
111.7 | 113.0 |
Tuesday 24 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 |
|
Durable Goods | 0.3% | -0.2% | ||
| 15:00 |
|
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month |
|
0.610Mln | 0.670Mln |
Thursday 26 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 |
|
Weekly Jobless Claims |
|
220k | 223k | |
| 16:00 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -0.934Mln | |||
| 23:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
2.5% | 2.5% | |
| 23:50 |
|
Industrial Production Prelim | 2.8% | -3.4% | ||
| 23:50 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
1.6% | 1.7% |
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