Market Analysis
Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 04/11/24
Monday 04 November
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:45 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing | 48.3 | 48.6 | 46.9 | |
| 08:50 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing | 44.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | |
| 08:55 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing | 42.6 | 42.6 | 43.0 | |
| 09:00 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing | 45.9 | 45.9 | 46.0 | |
| 15:00 | 
|
Factory Orders |
|
-0.2% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
Tuesday 05 November
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | 
|
Retail Sales (Office for National Stats) |
|
1.7% | +0.3% | |
| 03:30 | 
|
RBA Cash Rate |
|
4.35% | 4.35% | 4.35% |
| 07:45 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month | 1.4% | -0.6% | -0.9% | |
| 09:30 |
|
PMI Services | 51.8 | 51.8 | 52.0 | |
| 13:30 | 
|
Trade Balance |
|
-1.10Bln CA | -0.80Bln CA | -1.26Bln CA |
| 13:30 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-70.4Bln US | -84.1Bln US | -84.4Bln US |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Employment |
|
48.1 | 53.0 | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders |
|
59.4 | 57.4 | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity |
|
59.9 | 57.2 | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
|
54.9 | 53.8 | 56.0 |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices Paid |
|
59.4 | 58.1 |
Wednesday 06 November
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
2.4% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
0.1% | ||
| 08:45 |
|
PMI Services | 50.5 | 50.5 | 52.4 | |
| 08:50 |
|
PMI Services | 48.3 | 48.3 | 49.2 | |
| 08:55 |
|
PMI Services | 51.4 | 51.4 | 51.6 | |
| 09:00 |
|
PMI Composite | 49.7 | 49.7 | 50.0 | |
| 09:00 |
|
PMI Services | 51.2 | 51.2 | 51.6 | |
| 10:00 |
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| 10:00 |
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
-2.3% | -3.5% | -3.4% |
| 15:30 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -0.515Mln | 1.103Mln | 2.149Mln |
Thursday 07 November
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month |
|
2.9% | -1.0% | -2.5% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index UK (Halifax) |
|
0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 07:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
22.5Bln EU | 20.9Bln EU | +17.0Bln EU |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
2.4% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
0.1% | ||
| 10:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
0.8% | 1.3% | +2.9% |
| 10:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
0.2% | 0.4% | +0.5% |
| 12:00 |
|
BoE Rate Decision |
|
5.00% | 4.75% | 4.75% |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Cut | 1 | 7 | 8 | |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Unchanged | 8 | 2 | 1 | |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Hike | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13:30 |
|
Weekly Jobless Claims |
|
216k | 221k | 221k |
| 19:00 |
|
FOMC Rate Decision | 4.875% | 4.625% | 4.50 - 4.75% |
Friday 08 November
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
0.1% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
2.4% | ||
| 07:45 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-7.371Bln EU | -8.266Bln EU | |
| 09:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.1% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
| 09:00 |
|
Industrial Production Year on Year (wda) |
|
-3.2% | -4.0% | |
| 11:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) |
|
0.80% | +0.7% | |
| 11:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) |
|
-0.50% | +1.2% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% |
Saturday 09 November
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | 
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
-2.8% | -2.5% | -2.9% |
| 01:30 |
|
CPI Month on Month (China) |
|
0.0% | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
2.4% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
0.1% |
Tuesday 12 November
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
Claimant Count Unemployment Change |
|
27.9k | ||
| 07:00 |
|
CPI Final Year on Year |
|
2.0% | 2.0% | |
| 07:00 |
|
Unemployment Rate (ILO) |
|
4.0% | 4.1% | |
| 07:00 |
|
Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Year on Year |
|
3.8% | 3.9% | |
| 10:00 |
|
ZEW Current Conditions |
|
-86.9 | -86.0 | |
| 10:00 |
|
ZEW Economic sentiment |
|
13.1 | 12.8 | |
| 23:30 |
|
Consumer Sentiment |
|
6.2% |
Wednesday 13 November
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 |
|
ILO Unemployment Rate |
|
7.3% | 7.4% | |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Year on Year (nsa) |
|
2.4% | 2.6% |
Thursday 14 November
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
4.1% | 4.2% | |
| 10:00 |
|
GDP Flash estimate Year on Year | 0.9% | 0.9% | ||
| 10:00 |
|
GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter |
|
0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10:00 |
|
Industrial Production Year on Year |
|
0.1% | -1.7% | |
| 10:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month | 1.8% | -1.2% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PPI Core Year on Year |
|
1.8% | 2.3% | |
| 13:30 |
|
PPI Final Demand Month on Month |
|
0.0% | 0.2% | |
| 13:30 |
|
PPI excl Food and Energy MM |
|
0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Weekly Jobless Claims |
|
221k | 224k | |
| 16:00 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 2.149Mln | |||
| 23:50 | 
|
GDP Quarter on Quarter | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Friday 15 November
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 |
|
Retail Sales |
|
3.2% | 3.8% | |
| 04:30 |
|
Industrial Production Revised |
|
1.4% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month |
|
0.5% | 0.0% | |
| 07:00 |
|
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter |
|
0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 07:00 |
|
GDP Prelim Year on Year | 0.7% | 1.0% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
Manufacturing Output Month on Month |
|
1.1% | -0.1% | |
| 07:00 |
|
Industrial Production Year on Year |
|
-1.6% | -1.2% | |
| 07:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-15.060Bln GB | ||
| 07:00 |
|
Manufacturing Output Year on Year |
|
-0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 07:00 |
|
Trade Balance Non-EU |
|
-4.947Bln GB | ||
| 07:45 |
|
CPI Final Month on Month |
|
0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 07:45 |
|
CPI Final Year on Year |
|
1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 09:00 |
|
CPI Final Month on Month | 0.3% | 0.3% | ||
| 09:00 |
|
CPI Final Year on Year | 1.0% | 1.0% | ||
| 10:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-1.364Bln EU | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month | 0.5% | 0.3% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month | 0.4% | 0.3% | ||
| 14:15 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month |
|
-0.3% | -0.3% | |
| 15:00 |
|
Business Inventories Month on Month |
|
0.3% | 0.1% |
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