Financial Preview 11/02/2015: UK General Election 2015, Thursday 7th May 2015

It’s been a week since our last election preview, and the Tories are making gains despite a few scandalous road blocks in the way.

The election debate has centred around two issues this week: business and tax. Much furore was made of the spat between Stefano Pessina and the Labour party, and whilst Labour’s rebuttal that Pessina is a tax-avoiding Tory supporter was perhaps accurate, it did highlight the weak relations between Miliband and big business. Many believe Labour has taken a turn to the left under Miliband, and are moving away from the pro-business party it was under Blair and Brown; regardless of the accuracy of this statement, the perception that it is true is all that matters and Labour failed to assuage the tensions around this issue as the week went on.



After Ed Balls’ business amnesia on Newsnight last week, the shadow chancellor took part in the British Chambers of Commerce annual conference alongside David Cameron and Nick Clegg. Before the conference the BCC chief John Longworth stated that not having an EU referendum would prolong the uncertainty around the issue; Balls commented on this by stating Labour would not seek a referendum but would make the UK’s voice heard in regards to EU reform. However, it was Cameron who captured the room and solidified the Conservatives’ pro-business agenda; yet once again this is more due to perception than content. Unsurprisingly there is no doubt around the Tories’ approach to business, this Tory iteration’s track record is proven; Labour, on the other hand, have spent the week on the defensive trying to prove their commitment to business leaders, coming across as desperate in the process.



Labour then appeared to be gifted a package of political points as it was revealed that HSBC’s Swiss arm, under the leadership of Lord Stephen Green, the former Tory Minister for Trade and Investment, helped clients evade tax. However, Labour’s focus on the Tory donors amongst these clients rather than the negligence on the part of the governement muddied the waters as the entire donor-system is cloaked in obfuscation, leading to an own goal by Miliband as it was pointed out that a former Labour donor was on the same list. Yet again the Tories presented Labour with an opportunity for an incisive attack, and yet again Labour fumbled the political ball.

This has meant that instead of slipping, the Tories are heading into the end of the week making gains on last week’s spread betting position. This week has also side-lined UKIP, the Lib Dems and the SNP as the focus has been on areas where these smaller parties can’t compete with the major two. In terms of a General Election spread, the Conservatives had increased from 279-285 to 281-287, causing Labour to slip to 273-279 from 279-285. The SNP also continued to grow to 36-39, whilst UKIP fell back to 6-8 on a quiet week for Farage’s lot.