Financial Preview 20/04/2015: UK General Election 2015, Thursday 7th May 2015 – Key Constituencies Special

With the election only 17 days away, it is time to look at some of the micro decisions that will end up deciding the macro battle between Cameron, Miliband et al.

Spreadex is offering political spread betting on 100 of the tightest constituencies in this election, where the winner of said constituency receives 25 points, with second place receiving 10 points and all other participants receiving zero. With that in mind, here are 10 of the seats that are the toughest to call, or have seen the most change since 2010, ahead of May 7th!

First up is one of the many London marginals that will have a vital part to play come voting day. Brentford & Isleworth saw a narrow 3 point win for the Tories back in 2010; however, on May 7th it is looking like the Conservatives may have to ready themselves for a heavy defeat. In the latest Ashcroft poll Labour are leading by 13 points, with the issue of the expansion of Heathrow Airport being one of the main issues in the area. This has led Labour’s Ruth Cadbury to have a spread of 21.5-23 vs the Tories’ Mary Macleod at 12.5-14.

Taking a trip up north sees us look at one of the few seats that doesn’t involve both of the major UK parties. Bradford West looks set to be a battle between the incumbent George Galloway of the Respect Party and Naz Shah of Labour. This constituency campaign has been the scene of some ugly words as Galloway accused Naz Shah of lying about her tragic past in a recent hustings, dividing voters in the process. And it remains tough to call: Shah represents a community driven candidate whilst Galloway may ride to victory on his name. Currently Respect just have the edge, at a spread of 17.5-19 against Labour’s 16-17.5.



Another London seat up for grabs is Croydon Central. The latest Ashcroft poll puts Labour ahead by 4 points in a seat that lost by a 6 point margin to the Tories in 2010. The key difference here could be UKIP. With many Tory supporters in the area defecting to the purple party, this loss of core support could swing the seat in Labour’s favour. With momentum on their side after recently taking control of the local council from the Tories, Labour’s Sarah Jones is at 18.5-20 against the incumbent Conservative Gavin Barwell at 15-16.5.

Ealing Central & Acton looks like another swing in the red direction, with the 8 point lead the Tories had in 2010 turning into a 6 point lead for Labour in the latest Ashcroft poll. The last local election saw 3 Tory councillors ousted by their Labour counterparts, and with the closure of Ealing Hospital one of the main talking points in the local campaign, voters may flock to the NHS-friendly Labour candidate Rupa Huq. With the Lib Dems losing their lustre in the area, this seat by be decided by where those previously yellow voters; currently Labour are on 18.5-20 with the Tories trailing behind at 15-16.5.

The leftward turn in London continues into Enfield North, with Labour recently overtaking the Tories in the polls. However, there could be an issue for Labour in the shape of their chosen candidate. Joan Ryan unsuccessfully contested Gordon Brown’s leadership in 2008 and suffered under the expenses scandal, leading some to wonder if she is the right choice for such a tight seat. Regardless, Labour remains in the lead at a 21-22.5 spread compared to the Tories’ Nick de Bois at 13.5-15.

Turning to the east, Norwich North a big 2010 lead for the Tories has seen a considerable reversal in the intervening 5 years. A 9.2% different between Tory and Labour back in the last election has changed to a 1 point margin in favour of Labour in the last Ashcroft poll, 35% to 34%. However given how narrow this seat is, our Spreadex traders are favouring the incumbent Ann Steward at a spread of 18-19.5 compared to Labour’s Denise Burke at 15.5-17.

Moving a bit more north sees the key Tory East Midlands seat of Sherwood. However, it may not be Blue for much longer. The Conservative decision to close the Thoresby Colliery, the last pit in the area and a major part of North Nottinghamshire’s jobs landscape, may have irreversibly harmed the Tory’s chances, leaving Labour on 39% to the Conservatives’ 30% in the latest Ashcroft poll. This has left Labour’s Leonie Mathers on 20.5-22 compared to the incumbent Tory Mark Spencer on 13-14.5.



Leaving the north for south, Southampton Itchen saw a slim 192 majority for Labour back in 2010, something that looks unlikely to change due to a very-2015 reason. UKIP are sapping away Tory votes in the area, meaning that Labour’s fresh candidate Rowenna Davis looks set to survive the challenge from Tory Royston Smith, with Labour having an 8 point lead in the most recent poll. A large immigrant population in the area seems to have stoked the UKIP fires, one that ironically will likely cause the left-wing party to win, with Labour’s 20-21.5 spread currently beating the Conservative’s 13.5-15.

The Conservatives may be looking at a struggle in Stockton South, in a tight race for one of the Tories’ two seats in the North East of England. Incumbent Tory Hams Wharton, the man who attempted to push through an EU referendum through the backbenches, is a recognisable face that is managing to steal votes from the immigrant-wary UKIP party. However, the northern predilection for Labour may win out, with the latest Ashcroft polls putting Labour’s Louise Baldock ahead. This has left Labour at a spread of 18-19.5 versus the Tories’ 16-17.5.

Finally, we turn to the seat that perhaps most captures the chaotic and fractured narrative that has defined this 2015 election: Thurrock. This once 2-way marginal has grown a third head; won by only 92 seats by the Tories back in 2010, the rise of UKIP has been a disruption to two-party politics in the area. Despite the Conservatives' 2010 victory, the main battle this time is likely to be Red and Purple, not Blue and Red. UKIP launched their manifesto here last week, and are gunning for Thurrock to be one of the few seats the far-right party wins. Taking on UKIP’s Tim Aker is Labour’s Polly Billington, a former advisor to Ed Miliband and one of the leaders of his successful leadership campaign. However, opinion remains split on her effectiveness, leaving UKIP on 36% to Labour’s 30% and the Tories’ 28% in the latest polls. Spreadex has reflected this split, with UKIP at a spread of 16-17.5 versus Labour’s 10.5-12 and the Tories’ 6.5-8.