Financial Preview 25/02/2015: UK General Election 2015, Thursday 7th May 2015

After being defined by the HSBC tax evasion scandal and the subsequent mud-slinging by the two major parties, the run up to the UK general election was dominated by a new set of issues this week.

A sting by The Daily Telegraph and Channel 4’s Dispatches caused embarrassment for both Tory MP Sir Malcom Rifkind and Labour’s Jack Straw, as it revealed they were willing to take ‘cash for access’. Following these accusations, Rifkind resigned as ISC chairman and stepped down as an MP for Kensington, whilst Straw pledged to suspend himself from Labour after the election. Whilst both men (Rifkind especially) maintain they acted within the boundaries of the law, the issue has morphed into a debate about the moral discrepancies that can arise when an MP holds a second job on top of their elected position.

Labour have utilised this issue, and have pushed for a vote in the House of Commons this afternoon on whether MPs can have 2 jobs, something recent polls suggest the public are against. The topic also dominated today’s PMQs, with the consensus being that Miliband landed a blow on Cameron, who failed to thoroughly address the implications of MPs in dual roles, instead lobbing the usual trade union jibes towards the Labour leader.



Whilst the two major parties battle over the latest scandal, neither comes out un-muddied. Yet what has been interesting about the fallout of these high-profile embarrassments has been the lack of gains made by the smaller parties. Even just 6 months ago, UKIP would have been able to easily capitalise on this opportunity as the public perception of the dishonesty of the major parties grows. Yet, they haven’t. Lord Ashcroft claims UKIP fell by 5 points to 11% following the Channel 4 mock-doc-drama hybrid programme about the first 100 days of a UKIP government, whilst a Comres poll for Daily Mail suggested a similar decline, by 4 points to 13%.

Ashcroft did suggest that the far-right party is ‘within striking distance’ of marginal seats, like the Essex constituency of Castle Point, but this doesn’t obscure the fact that their stock is falling in the broader election picture. Slightly more recent polls on Tuesday saw slightly different figures, with a YouGov/The Sun poll having UKIP at 14%, whilst a Daily Mirror survey puts them at 19%. Nevertheless, UKIP are not making their voices heard as much as they were. The gurning face of Nigel Farage hasn’t the made same amount of appearances as before the election campaigns began in earnest, and in the discussions of actual policy the party have remained decidedly quiet.



However there is a potential alternative reason for this. UKIP doesn’t have any real backing in the mainstream media, at least not in the way the Tories or Labour do, or the Lib Dems did in 2010. And with the election news being dominated first by the HSBC scandal and now by ‘cash for access’, UKIP don’t have the clout or the history to make their views on these issues sought-after. For all the talk of this election being a fragmentary race between multiple parties, the main battles so far have returned to the usual pairing of Labour and Conservatives.

This has been reflected by UKIP’s presence in the spread betting world. Here at Spreadex UKIP are the only party to consistently see their odds shrink, now at a General Election Seats spread of 4.5-6.5 from 6.5-8.5 at the start of February. Their favour with clients has also slowed down; after a flurry of bets on the far-right party when our odds were first announced, there has been very little movement surrounding their hopes in the past fortnight. In contrast there has been little change at the top, with the Tories at a spread of 280-286, and Labour at 275-281, as the polls remain split on which party will win.

Check out our spreads and fixed odds on the election here: https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Politics/m121