Financial Preview 29/04/2015: UK General Election 2015, Thursday 7th May 2015

With just over a week to go, the major parties appear to have sprung into life this Wednesday after a rather dull week of campaigning.

There are a couple of things responsible for this mid-week burst of energy. Firstly, the fact that preliminary first quarter GDP came in far below both expectations at 0.3% was a blow to the Tories that needed dealing with. Secondly, and rather surprisingly, the news that Ed Miliband was interviewed by noted non-voter Russell Brand became the media-event of the weekend.

The GDP decline came on top of a week of bad news for the Tories. HSBC threatened to leave the country if Britain exits the EU, Rupert Murdoch led a charge to Tory donors criticising Cameron’s campaign, whilst Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman attacked the Tories’ austerity measures (whilst also taking aim at Labour for following the Tories down that austere road). The GDP miss was the icing on a rather unpleasant cake, and spurred the Tories to take drastic measures this Wednesday.



Cameron, with the air of a slight hail-Mary, pledged that, if re-elected, he would enact a law within first 100 days that would prevent any rises in income tax, VAT or national insurance for the entirety of the next Parliament. Labour swiftly moved to criticise this pledge, stating that it both undermines the Tories’ claim that they are the party who can be trusted on the economy because they feel the need to ‘straightjacket’ themselves by law, as well as suggesting that they would make such cuts elsewhere, for example tax credits and child benefits.

Labour, for their part, were caught up in a flurry of non-controversy after Miliband was snapped exiting Russell Brand’s flat. With Cameron and the right-wing press dismissing the move, there was a distinct split between what was reported in the press and the general public sentiment about the decision. However, regardless of personal opinion, whether you think Brand is an uneducated clown or the ‘fourth most influential thinker’ in the world, it is undeniable that many people respond to his anti-establishment stance.



Therefore in allowing himself to be interviewed by Brand, Miliband is a) exposing himself to an audience he can try and convince not only to vote for him, but to vote at all, and just as importantly b) make himself, and his party by extension, appear far more relevant than to certain sections of society than the Conservatives. To criticise the decision is to largely miss the point, a point that says that people can be dissatisfied with the process, and more interestingly be young, and still be heard.

However, regardless of the public perceptions of each of the major parties campaigns, the Conservatives have increased their lead in the General Seats spreads to 285-290 compared to Labour’s 268-273. The Tories have also, more importantly, seen a wave of buys in regards to both its General Seats and Most Seats Binary spreads. Interestingly, the usual trend of a the binary No Overall Majority spread increasing has gone the other way this week, just, as it fell to 85.7-91.7, with the upshot being felt, once again, by the Tories.