Big rebound on Wall Street after positive ISM surprise

Major US indices soared higher on Wednesday after a set of better-than-expected economic data led by July’s PMI Services alleviated increasing worries of a brewing recession. S&P and DJIA gained 1.56% and 1.29% respectively, whereas NASDAQ realized most capital inflows and advanced 2.59% as several tech stocks reaped rewards.

Key Factors for today

• Major US indices risk-on after series of upbeat economic data surprise
• Fed speakers believe markets are wrong in expecting cuts or being in recession
• OPEC+ production up marginally but WTI fell after US inventories rose
• Turbine controversy keeps Natural gas prices elevated
• Moderna and Paypal gain substantially, but Match and SolarEdge add pessimism

ISM sends Nasdaq 20% above June low

A handful of upbeat PMI reports released on Wednesday bolstered all three US major indices, with the Nasdaq gaining the most. Yesterday’s session marked a staggering 20% gain off the lows of June for the index.

Components of the ISM NMI showed overperformance of new orders while prices paid diminished, supporting hopes that inflation might be near its peak. The indicator accelerated to 56.7, compared to 53.5 expected and 55.3 previously posted. Factory orders also surprised to the upside.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s Daly said that markets were likely ahead of themselves in expecting rate cuts next year while Bullard reaffirmed the US is not currently in recession.

New OPEC+ production target sends WTI 6% lower

The oil cartel agreed to raise production by just 100K bpd above the August targeted increase, for a total increase of 748K bpd in September. This represents less than 1% of the total OPEC member production of ~30M bpd. However, given the distribution agreement, and that most members have already reached their maximum production capacity, it would only mean about 34K bpd of effective production increase.

Oil prices ended up sliding lower though. The daily high of $98/b was quickly reversed with a drop of more than 6% - seeing black gold end the session at $92/b.

The weekly EIA report showed inventories unexpectedly rising to 4.467M barrels, missing expectations of a -0.639M barrels draw, contributing to the selloff.

Natural gas 3.5% higher on turbine controversy

The missing turbine is still preventing the resumption of gas shipments from Russia fully through Nord Stream 1, Gazprom PJSC said after German Chancellor Scholz insisted that there were no impediments for Russia to receive the turbine.

Gas supplies are steady at 20% of normal capacity to Germany but with winter approaching Europe is seeking to store more gas. Natural gas prices closed 3.50% higher despite EIA’s inventories jumping from -3.30M to 0.163M on -1.614M expectation.

Scholz also said he was open to potentially extending the life of nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, the Freeport LNG terminal in the US got approval to renew operations.

Market movers

• Moderna was up 16% after earnings beat and new $3B buyback program
• Paypal ends 9.25% higher on strong profit guidance and $2B Elliott stake
• Match plummets 19.1% after revenue and forecast miss
• Solar Edge sent 17.5% lower on EPS miss despite upbeat sales
• Clorox fell 6% after earnings were in line, but offered guidance below expectations
• Mercadolibre rose 12% on better-than-expected results
• Lucid slid 12% after disappointing on the top and bottom line

Looking out for

• BOE interest rate decisions and MPC vote
• US initial jobless claims ahead of NFP
• Fed speakers