Spreadex Market Update

USD Breaks Out To Fresh Highs Following NFP Beat



The US Dollar continues its recent winning streak, with the Dollar Index breaking out to fresh 2022 highs again this week, while EURUSD has fallen under 0.99. The dollar has been lifted on the back of Friday’s upside NFP surprise.

The headline reading came in at 315k, above the 295k expected. Although both the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings were seen missing projections, the beat on the headline data was enough for USD bulls to pile in further ahead of the upcoming September FOMC meeting.

Interestingly, despite the upside in USD, market pricing for a larger 75bps hike from the Fed has now softened to less than 60% from around 70% ahead of the data. US markets are offline today due to the long weekend for Labor Day, however, it will be interesting to see if USD begins to soften tomorrow, reflecting the shift in pricing.

 

Key Factors for Today

- USD broke out to fresh highs again today following Friday’s NFP beat
- Headline NFP came in at 315k vs 295k expected though earnings and unemployment rate both disappointed
- Equities stabilise as market pricing for September FOMC softens
- EUR weakens on growth fears amidst Nordstream gas line suspension
- OPEC meetings begin today
- Metals and commodities stable at start of week

 

Coming Up

- EUR Eurozone final services PMI
- OIL OPEC meetings all day
- GBP UK Final Services PMI

 

Equities Stabilise As Fed September Pricing Shifts

Stock markets look to be starting the new week on a slightly better footing. Following heavy losses across the board last week, many equities indices have since stabilised and are trading in the green across the European open on Monday. The shift in Fed pricing following Friday’s US labour data has no doubt had some impact on equities sentiment. However, looking across the week (with three central bank meetings due), there is plenty of event risk for equities markets and volatility is likely to be amplified this week.

 

USD Leads in FX, NZD Strong Also

In FX, The US Dollar has seen the strongest start to the week over late Asian and early European trading so far today. However, with the Dollar softening a little from the early session highs and with risk sentiment stabilising, we’re seeing strength creeping in elsewhere. NZD has been the second-best performer so far today, likely a reflection of the better footing we’re seeing in risk markets. Similar strength can be seen in CAD which is being helped by oil prices off last week’s lows.
EUR Hurt By Nordstream Gas Suspension
EUR has been the weakest performer so far today. Traders are bracing for the September ECB meeting midweek with expectations split between a further 50bps hike and a larger 75bos hike. The single currency is also being hurt by economic concerns on the back of Russia indefinitely suspending Nordstream gas supplies while it carries out maintenance on the pipe line.
Oil Traders Watching OPEC Amidst Production Cut Chatter
In the metals and commodities space, the slight pull back from highs we’re seeing in the US Dollar today has allowed for some stability. Gold and silver have both paused in their recent declines while oil prices are seeing demand at lows also, helping keep them above the 2022 level low watermark for now. The latest OPEC+ meetings get underway today and will be closely watched given the chatter surrounding a potential production cut in a bid to help lift flagging oil prices.

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