Spreadex Market Update
Markets remain lifeless ahead of crucial US non-farm figure
The headline figure, of course, will be the non-farm employment change number, which is expected to come in at around 220k. However, analysts have been notoriously spotty in forecasting this figure correctly in the last 14 months, with only this May’s and last June’s numbers holding a fair claim to being called accurate. Regardless, any improvement on that expected figure could cause a real headache for the Dow Jones, which is at the end of an already rough week. It’s not all about non-farm, though; the average hourly earnings figure is similarly important, with wage growth one of the Fed’s key metrics ahead of a hike.
In anticipation of this afternoon’s wave of US jobs data the European markets couldn’t do much of anything. A marginally better than expected trade balance figure for the UK, taking the country’s trade deficit to its lowest in 2 years, couldn’t really help the FTSE post any gains. What is interesting is that the index’s oil and mining stocks are in the middle of a mild recovery, despite Brent Crude being below $50 per barrel with a near 6 year nadir for copper and aluminium.
The Eurozone indices were similarly limp, with the DAX and CAC struggling to gain any ground after the morning’s disappointing industrial production figures. There was, however, some Greek news to mull over. Wolfgang Schauble, sporadic villain of the Greek saga, stated that he would rather Greece receive another bridging loan to help them make their August 20th ECB repayment than rush through a third bailout just to meet that date. Without trying to read too much into the German finance minister’s comments, it does perhaps mean that progress on an agreement isn’t as fast-paced as comments from Tsipras and Hollande would suggest.
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