Spreadex Market Update

Gold to stay firm? Asian market up



An imminent hike in US interest rates is often followed by a large downturn on gold prices; however, this time round analysts believe the commodity’s status as a safe haven could well hold firm owing to uncertainties in the United States and Europe. Indeed, the last time the Fed raised interest rates, back in December, gold fell to a 10 month low but investors don't appear to be as nervous ahead of the inevitable hike next week. Speculative long positions held by hedge funds and other money managers have nearly tripled this year.

However, the 121,720 lots held as of the end of February are still woefully short of the 286,921 contracts held in July 2016. That was when gold was at its 2 year highs at $1,374.91 an ounce. Nevertheless, this smaller speculative position is actually another point in favour of gold remaining stable as it reduces the threat of a sharp drop should a flurry of positions be unwound. In general, higher interest rates make it less attractive to hold gold because the rate does not bear on its price. There is also the issue of a strong US dollar which makes gold more expensive for prospective buyers in other currencies.

"Eyes will no doubt be cast to the US’ non-farms payroll which is released this afternoon."

In Asia, stocks were edging up and the USD climbed to a seven week high against the yen. Most notably Japan’s Nikkei index rose by 1.5% with the change in the currency pair working in the favour of these big, global companies. Eyes will no doubt be cast to the US’ nonfarms payroll which is released this afternoon.

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