Spreadex Market Update
US Dollar Sitting On A Cliff Edge
The US Dollar came under heavy selling pressure again yesterday as the latest set of PPI figures came in well below expectations for March. Headline PPI m/m fell 0.5% while core fell 0.1%. On the back of softer-than-forecast CPI earlier in the week, the data is adding to the view that the expected .25% hike from the Fed next month might well be followed by a pause as pricing for rate cuts later in the year continue to grow. Tech stocks rebounded firmly yesterday, as did risk currencies. Today, attention turns to the latest set of US retail sales figures with a weak reading likely to set the tone for a weaker USD into next week.
Metals Breakout Continues as Gold & Silver Push Higher
Gold and silver traders continue to embrace the weaker USD environment with both metals seen breaking out further yesterday. Silver hit highs of $26 while gold stalled just shy of the $2050 mark. Both look ready to breakout further today should the USD fall deepen on a weak retail sales release.
Bitcoin traders are also looking in good shape today. BTC futures passed the $31000 mark earlier today as the crypto rally continues to gather pace. A weak US retail sales figure today should keep the rally fired up into next week as fed rate cut expectations for later in the year continue to divert capital back into crypto assets. Now back above the $29775 level resistance, BTC looks to have a clear path to a test of the $32460 level which is the next key resistance to watch.
In FX, higher-beta currencies such as NZD and CAD have been back in the driving seat across the European open on Friday. The weakness in USD is driving a rebound across the commodity-currency space. NZDUSD is now back above the $.63 level from lows earlier in the week around $0.6185 while USDCAD is fast approaching a test of the YTD lows. Interestingly, AUD hasn’t seen the same level of demand and is trading in the red currently. JPY has also been a weak performer today given the better tone to risk appetite which is diluting safe-haven demand for the Yen.
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