Trump-Putin Call Looms as Nvidia, Hang Seng Rally

Markets are closely watching a call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as the US seeks a Ukraine ceasefire, with potential impacts on European gas prices and the euro. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged nearly 23% this year, hitting a three-year peak, while Nvidia prepares to unveil its Vera Rubin chip at its annual conference amid growing AI cost concerns. Weak US retail sales and upcoming reciprocal tariffs pressured the dollar and lifted gold, as central bank meetings in Japan, the US, the UK, Sweden, and Switzerland approach.

Equities

The FTSE 100 rose 0.6% on Monday, supported by gains in energy and mining stocks. Shell climbed 1.6%, benefiting from higher oil prices after the US confirmed ongoing military action against Yemen’s Houthis. Precious metal miners rose 2.6%, with gold prices remaining near record levels after reaching $3,000 an ounce last week. P

hoenix Group jumped 10%, reporting stronger-than-expected full-year adjusted operating profit, supported by growth in its pensions and savings business. Trainline gained 6.1% after FIL Limited increased its stake in the company to 10.19%. On the downside, QinetiQ fell 21.5%, warning of delays in short-term contracts in the US and UK due to new government policies.

The S&P 500 rose 0.64%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.85%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.31%. The markets have struggled in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 falling over 10% from its February high before recovering over the last two sessions.

Intel surged 6.82% after reports that incoming CEO Lip-Bu Tan is considering changes to its chip manufacturing and AI strategies. Quantum computing stocks also saw significant gains, with D-Wave Quantum up 10.15% and Quantum Corp rising 40.09%, as Nvidia kicked off its annual developer conference.

Tesla fell 4.79% after Mizuho cut its price target on the stock from $515 to $430, adding to a difficult year in which Tesla’s share price is down 41%. Real estate and energy stocks led gains in the S&P 500, while consumer discretionary stocks were the only sector in decline. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged when it meets on Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta revised its estimate for first-quarter GDP to show a 2.1% contraction, down from a previous estimate of 1.6%. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that there are "no guarantees" the US will avoid a recession.

Forex & Commodities

The US dollar held steady just above a five-month low, with traders waiting for the Federal Reserve’s economic projections this week. The dollar index rose 0.13% to 103.59, having dropped 6% from its January peak. Concerns over the impact of Trump’s tariffs on economic growth have weighed on the currency. The euro slipped slightly to $1.0907, just below last week’s five-month high of $1.0947, as Germany prepares to vote on a major stimulus package. The Japanese yen weakened, falling 0.39% to 149.79 per dollar, as investors await the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Wednesday. Sterling traded at $1.29755, close to its strongest level since November.

Gold extended its record-breaking rally, reaching an all-time high of $3,018.66 per ounce before easing slightly to $3,017.84. The 14% increase in gold prices this year has been driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. ANZ raised its three-month gold price forecast to $3,100, citing ongoing demand from central banks and investors.

Oil prices edged higher as Brent crude rose 0.5% to $71.43 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 0.5% to $67.90. China’s economic stimulus plans and higher crude demand in January-February supported prices, though concerns over Trump’s tariffs and global growth limited gains. Talks between Trump and Putin on ending the Ukraine war are being closely watched, as a ceasefire could ease sanctions on Russian oil, potentially increasing global supply and pressuring prices.