Spreadex Market Update
Brexit nerves return for FTSE despite polls and bookies suggesting win for Vote Remain
Not that these nerves slowed down the Dow Jones. While note quite at the peak the futures promised, the US index nevertheless opened 140 points higher, yet again taking it above the 17900 mark. The dribs and drabs of data provided by the US session understandably failed to make much impact, even if their general state was promising; jobless claims hit an 8 week low of 259k, while the Markit flash manufacturing PMI jumped back to a 3 month high of 51.4. Only the new homes sales figure disappointed, slipping to 551k from an already revised-down 586k last month.
Over in Europe the indices receded from their midday peaks, instead returning to the calmer trading seen earlier in the morning. The DAX and CAC both saw their gains reduce to 0.3% apiece, while the FTSE slipped into the red by half a percent having been up 1% at lunchtime. Interestingly while the FTSE faltered the pound clung onto the majority of its Thursday growth, rising nearly 1% against the dollar and a milder 0.2% against the euro.
So, that’s almost it. One imagines, regardless of the result, tomorrow with be a far more hectic day of trading, be it caused by a post-Brexit plunge or a relieved wave of investors pouring back in to buy up the pound et al. In terms of the result it looks more and more like Vote Remain will prevail; from a Remain Binary Index spread of 76-77 yesterday Spreadex is now offering 81.8-86.7, where 0 is a Brexit and 100 sees Britain stay in the EU. The Remain Vote Share spread, meanwhile, has crept up to 54.5-55.5, the Ipsos MORI and Populus polls earlier in the day finally reflecting what the spread betters and bookies have been consistently suggesting throughout the past fortnight.
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