Spreadex Market Update
US data disappoints once more, markets look limp
There remains a discrepancy between the levels of the US markets, and the actual recovery the US is currently undergoing. The preliminary GDP for the fourth quarter was better than expected, but was still a drop from the last figure, whilst the Chicago PMI hit 5 and a half year lows, pending home sales missed its targets and the revised UoM consumer sentiment failed to match last month’s figure, despite an increase on the initial reading.
Whilst this data didn’t cause a precipitous fall, it cemented a weak end the month after the US markets had seen such explosive gains as late as Tuesday. Regardless, February will be remembered as the month where the Dow and S&P once more broke records and the NASDAQ edged even closer to its fabled 5000 level; yet this will paint a brighter picture than is accurate, with the US recovery still looking shakier than some would have you think.
Over in the Eurozone, the German vote to extend the Greek bailout deal did little to inspire growth in the markets, with the DAX et al. remaining at their pre-vote growth levels. However, this still leaves the German index at its latest all-time high, with the even more tantalising prospect of a Greek-free start to March. Despite the near-constant turmoil the region has been subjected to in February, it will come out in a very impressive position come closing time. And with ECB QE to start in earnest in March, its positive run may not have ended yet.
The FTSE edged back into the green this afternoon, and is on track to have gained nearly 150 points by the end of the month. Whilst this is paltry compared to the Dow Jones’ gains, the FTSE has managed to do this largely by borrowing the positive sentiment that has been the norm for the US and Eurozone markets in February.
Brent Crude looks like it finally end a month in the green, a rare sight since it began it declines, whilst copper looks set to be in a similar positive position. Gold’s situation, on the other hand, remains dire; whilst it has made a minor recovery this past week, it is still looking at ending February down by around $70 as the dollar continued to hamper the metal’s growth.
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