Spreadex Market Update

Saudis win OPEC battle royale as Draghi reaffirms eventual intervention




Since this morning, oil is down 4.4% to a low of $74.35. Saudi Arabia managed to override the pleas of smaller members of the cartel, allowing the country to maintain their position in the oil landscape as the USA continues to ramp up production. Oil was looking to today’s summit as its best chance to prevent the commodity from tumbling any lower; with this opportunity gone, oil looks at a loss for another chance to end its drop in the short term. Whilst the US markets will only be open for limited trading hours tomorrow, it will be interesting to see the impact of OPEC non-decision on the Dow’s record run.

As oil continued to sink lower as the day progressed, the FTSE maintained its weak performance as the weight of the index’s multiple energy companies bearing the brunt of oil’s misfortune. Afren, Petrofac, Premier Oil, Tullow Oil and Royal Dutch Shell were all down today by at least 4%; in the face of this mass of bearish sentiment, the FTSE didn’t stand a chance at rallying as the day went on, falling 0.2% to around 6713.

As has been the trend recently, the DAX has soared as the euro cowered following ECB President Draghi’s reaffirmation that without economic reform the Eurozone is at risk. Whilst Draghi would not provide any firm comments before the ECB meeting next Tuesday, his continued confirmation of ECB’s intention to intervene at some point in the (relatively) near future has been music to the ears of the German index.

The DAX rose 0.5% today to reach an intraday high of 9995.7, a hair’s breadth away from the 10000 mark it hasn’t reached since July this year. The euro, on the other hand, continued to be wary of Draghi’s comments, as the promise of QE is also a promise of potential currency decline, causing the euro to fall 0.2% against the euro to 1.24808. It will be interesting to see if the DAX can maintain its run as the Eurozone announces its CPI flash estimate and unemployment rate tomorrow morning.

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