Weekly Technical Analysis 29/05/2023

Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.

The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.

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WALL STREET (4 hours)

Wall Street could not break past 33300, but bulls managed to hold above the 33k handle in what appears to be a potential breakout towards 33750. If 33k is breached, a move toward the lower end of the range at 32500 will be more likely, but we might witness the formation of a falling wedge in doing so.

SPX 500 (4 hours)

The triangle seen in the SPX appears complete, but prices falling above the last triangle leg at 4100 did not invalidate it. In the short term, the index might reach the measured-move target near 4280 for a wedge completion instead, but without breaking past it, chances of further upside remain slim. Losing 4190 might expose 4050.

GERMANY 40 (4 hours)

A similar scenario is seen in the German index, but the triangle is likely invalidated as prices fell under 15750 unless the downside leg off the top is part of a larger degree correction. A drop below 16000 might offer a chance of an H&S, but if bears fail, the upside could open the door to the 16335 top and perhaps 16500. Otherwise, the index might revisit 15480. 

BRENT CRUDE (4 hours)

Brent could be printing a rising wedge as prices bounced at the $75/bbl swing and remain biased up so long bulls maintain their grip. Should prices surpass $78.55/bbl, the next target could be around $80/bbl. On the other side of the spectrum, bears need to hold ground around $73.30/bbl to preserve the low near $71.30/bbl.

NATURAL GAS (4 hours)

Natural gas witnessed a steep drop within the $2-$2.55 range, focusing on whether the downside leg forms a falling wedge near $2.20/cf. Bulls are expected to aim to reclaim $2.60, which might lead to $2.80 if achieved. Conversely, setbacks might trigger further declines, which could eliminate $2.30/cf but unlikely $2.15/cf.

SILVER (4 hours)               

Silver trended lower until it found local support at $22.70 per ounce and bounced but remains at risk of a falling wedge pattern. If prices continue to rise, bulls might encounter the $24 barrier but are unlikely to reach $24.70. Otherwise, if the former support fails, short positions towards $21.50 might be seen instead, provided $22.15 gives way to bears.

AUD/USD (4 hours)

The Australian dollar has breached 0.6565 against the US counterpart after completing a flag pattern at 0.6820. Should bulls fail to reclaim the bottom trendline near the 0.6590 mark, a dip toward 0.6275 might occur, with interim support at 0.6385. If prices break higher instead, it could signal a leg towards 67 cents.

EUR/JPY (1 day)

EUR/JPY has completed a triangle pattern at 138.78, sending prices to 151.67. A rally towards the top could trigger a breakout toward 152, and perhaps higher unless the pair goes into consolidation. If conditions shift, the break of 146 might be followed by further declines toward the 145.50 mark but unlikely lower. 

GBP/CHF (4 hours)

GBP/CHF might break higher should a triangle pattern be completed at 1.1144, clearing the path toward 1.1278. In between, the local swing at 1.1240 must give in to potential pressure. If bears take control of the low, we could see further pullbacks towards 1.1092 with little chance of 1.1070.

PREMIER AFRICAN MINERALS (1 day)

PAM’s stock price has fallen sharply over the years, only to rise to the top of 100p and decline to 0.50p. The simplicity of the numbers could also provide a similar outcome to the aftermath of the next leg, as price action resembles a cup and handle pattern. If the regional low succumbs, chances of a handle will reduce, while losing 0.40p might pave the way toward 0.27p. Inversely, gaining over 0.80p will likely have the opposite impact, with the window to 100p wide open.