Weekly Feb 14-18

The ongoing improvement in corporate earnings is so far balancing the prospect of aggressive rate hikes by central banks - but markets feel like they are at a tipping point. 

----------------

Week in Review

Last week's theme was inflation, with the markets holding their breath ahead of the release of US Jan CPI numbers. The data was essential because it was the first month since the Fed explicitly acknowledged the need to hike rates . And the data didn’t disappoint – reaching 7.5% y/y – the highest since 1982. The market reaction was exacerbated by St Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, who now wants to see 100 basis points in hikes by July. US 10-year yields hit 2.0% for the first time since 2019.

Anecdotally, the world's largest consumer company, Unilever, acknowledged its own prices were rising and foresees inflation pressures continuing for the rest of the year.

After finally acknowledging that inflation could be an issue and the possibility of higher interest rates in Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde walked back her post ECB-meeting comments this week. The verbal intervention disrupted the rise in the euro but European bond yields continued higher. 

The Footie remained on its 2022 throne as top index-performer, helped by well-received UK earnings, solid UK GDP growth and rising bank stocks. Bank net interest margins improve when interest rates rise.

China was back from a holiday, but most attention was on the Olympics. While the Olympics played as a backdrop for geopolitical activity, the PBOC appeared to have reached something of a pause in easing. 

Commodity prices have been rising since the start of the year and last week oil hit fresh 7-year highs, iron ore broke into a 5-month high above $150 and even gold benefitted, hitting a 2-week high.

The Week Ahead

Earnings season is far from over, with major companies still slated to report next week, including Palantir, Home Depot, BHP, Michelin, Engie, Alcon, Heineken, Carrefour, Nvidia, Hilton, Cisco, Repsol, Intel, and Renault.

Geopolitical tensions are likely to remain a risk factor, as Russia will conduct large-scale naval exercises in the Black Sea. A massive military exercise in Belarus is scheduled to wind down during the week, and it will be key for tensions between NATO and Russia to see if the deployed military assets return to base as planned. German Chancellor Scholz is scheduled to meet President Putin on Tuesday. Tensions will increase speculation in the oil and natural gas markets.

On the macro front, the January FOMC meeting minutes could shed extra light on whether a 50-basis point hike is a real possibility at the next meeting in March. Bullard recently raised the prospect of an ‘emergency meeting’ before March- minutes might mention the same. Although minutes are always a bit stale in light of new information learned in the two weeks since the meeting, markets could pounce on any excuse to send bond yields higher, with implications for tech stocks and FX markets.

US retail sales released this week will be another economic clue for the Fed’s action in March. If higher prices sufficiently dampen consumption, the Fed might have to think twice.

UK January inflation data could prove pivotal for whether there is a third Bank of England rate hike in a row. GBP/USD is a tough UK macro trade given the focus on the Fed, but other forex pairs, like GBP/JPY (heading into 158 resistance) and EUR/GBP (at the key 0.83 support) could see cleaner reactions to UK headline data.

Other key data points include Japanese CPI, Australian employment and Flash PMIs from Europe.