Weekly Trading Update

13.04.12 Friday Morning



Volatility and range made a dramatic return to the markets this week following the long Easter weekend. Ben Bernanke was once again the foe following his comments that the US economy was yet to fully recover. Last week’s poor non-farm figure did little to help with Wall Street selling off by a couple of hundred points on Tuesday. However, indices recovered from Wednesday onwards off reports that upcoming US earning reports could be favourable even after a quarter where corporate growth stalled due to Eurozone related issues.

Europe has been quieter this week due in part to the shorter week. Sentix investor confidence was a lot worse than expected resulting from continued fears about the state of the Mediterranean countries. Both the Spanish finance and budget ministers were vocal in professing that austerity alone is not the way forward and that the country has to regain its competitiveness, thus adding a VAT tax would be a mistake. Greece continues to struggle with increasing unemployment but they have reached an agreement that the general election will take place on the 6th May. The bond swap has now reached 96.6% take up.
 
The ECB will restart its controversial government bond purchases rather than offer banks another round of LTRO’s as the sovereign debt crisis continues a survey of economist’s shows. Auctions this week were poor on the whole with Italians getting a full take up but worse yields and the German not attaining a full take up.
 
In Asia North Korea said in a very rare and embarrassing public admission of failure that its much hyped long-range rocket launch failed. This will be seen as a blow for the new leader who faces an international rebuke over the attempt. It does, however, raise concerns about the mind-set of the ‘Great Successor’.
 
China this morning announced its lowest growth rate in 3 years, 8.1% whilst one of its leading politicians was ejected from top rank following his wife’s arrest for suspected murder. South Korea and Japan released better news with the formers unemployment rate dropping whilst the latter saw the yen strengthen after it announced it will further pursue easing policy.
 
In equities, earnings season started with Alcoa beating expectations and Google announcing net profits up 61% in Q1 whilst Sony declared a profit warning and said it will cut ten thousand jobs worldwide. Vedanta Resources announced record quarterly production of lead, silver and aluminium but continues to struggle with iron ore production due to transport "bottlenecks" in Goa. International Power remains in talks with GDF Suez with regards to a proposed bid whilst Centamin Egypt saw Q1 gold output up 9%, slightly below estimates.

 

WallStreet Chart

Open (Monday)

12923

Close (Thursday)

12984

Change

0.47%

High

12986

Low

12708

UK100 Chart

Open (Monday)

5664

Close (Thursday)

5716

Change

0.92%

High

5728

Low

5538

Gold Chart

Open (Monday)

1644

Close (Thursday)

1677

Change

2.01%

High

1681

Low

1633

Cable Chart

Open (Monday)

1.5869

Close (Thursday)

1.5963

Change

0.59%

High

1.5984

Low

1.5811

We see retail sales figures from the US on Monday followed by building permits and the Philly Fed Index on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. UK inflation figures are released Tuesday with the MPC minutes and claimant count out on Thursday. The German Ifo Business Climate and Canadian inflation figures out Friday are also ones to look out for. In America earnings season has started with JP Morgan and Wells releasing earnings today. Next week Goldman Sachs, Coca Cola, Northern Trust, Yahoo, Bank of America and Bank of New York Mellon but to name a few release numbers. In the UK Thursday sees Hargreaves Lansdown, International Power, Hammerson and Ladbrokes interim management statements.

See our Economic Diary here.

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