14.03.16 Monday Morning

Following a fortnight full of non-farm reports and dramatic ECB announcements March’s run of important information only intensifies this week, with Wednesday an absurdly over-stuffed 24 hours including the UK jobs report and annual budget, the latest US inflation data AND the month’s FOMC statement.

US
After stepping out of the spotlight to give the Eurozone its moment in the sun the Dow (now firmly above 17000) and dollar return with a vengeance this week, entering arguably one of the most important periods for the region since the New Year began.

Wednesday sees the second FOMC meeting since the central bank raised rates last December, with the markets still uncertain over what Yellen and co. will do this time around. Whilst it is unlikely the Fed will enact another hike, especially given the turmoil at the turn of the New Year (turmoil many would directly attribute to the rate raise) and the general shoddy state of the recent US data, inaction isn’t exactly guaranteed either.

Unlike the relatively sparse European calendar in the run up to last week’s ECB meeting, there will be plenty for investors to chew on ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC statement, each figure gaining an extra air of importance due to the proximity of the Fed’s meeting. The Empire State manufacturing index and retail sales data arrives on Tuesday, whilst Wednesday sees arguably the most important figure of the week in the form of the inflation data. Post-Fed Thursday then sees the Philly Fed manufacturing index and jobless claims numbers, whilst Friday brings with it the month’s preliminary UoM consumer sentiment data.

UK
After rising and falling on the back of ECB announcements and Brent Crude movements (the black stuff at points touching $41 per barrel), the FTSE will certainly have its own news to follow this week. 

Battling the FOMC statement and US inflation figures for attention, Wednesday sees the latest UK jobs report (following last month’s disappointing set of data) AND George Osborne’s annual budget, a double-whammy that will either see the FTSE continue its recent rebound or nip its nascent gains in the bud. 

Whilst Monday and Tuesday are relatively empty for the FTSE, Thursday builds on Wednesday’s deluge of data with the Bank of England rate vote, with likely little change from last month’s 9-0 dovish decision. Earnings-wise things are fairly quiet, the most notable releases coming from Hikma Pharmaceuticals on Wednesday, and Premier Farnell and Ted Baker on Thursday.

Eurozone
Following the crazy reaction to Mario Draghi’s wide-ranging set of stimulus measure last Thursday, with a violently yoyo-ing euro and an alternately impressed and sceptical DAX veering between super-charged growth and huge losses, things should be far calmer for the Eurozone this week. Data-wise the French and region-wide inflation figures are the only things of note, arriving on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, whilst there are earnings releases from Amadeus Fire, Elmos Semiconductor, Virbac, Cellectis and NRJ Group.

Stock of the week: Ted Baker PLC – Full Year 2015 Earnings Release
What is interesting about Ted Baker’s early 2016 slump is that amidst its sustained slump the company produced an impressive Christmas update in the middle of January. That report saw Ted Baker post a 10.1% rise in retail sales, with online sales seeing a stellar 39.1% surge, despite sidestepping the price-slashing approach seen by some of its peers. This also meant the company avoided having to blame milder weather for any sales-failings (cough, Next, cough, M&S), instead stating it was on track to meet its full year forecasts.

Since then Ted Baker has largely risen (hitting £30.88 at the start of February) and fallen (back down to £27.17 a few weeks later) on the back of the wider macro-movements; it sits at a current trading price of £28.66 (IT-Finance.com, 11/03/2016).

In terms of Ted Baker’s full year figures on Thursday, analysts are expecting an 18% increase in year-on-year sales to £58.4 million.

(Source: IT-Finance.com 11/03/2016)