Weekly Trading Update

The Pound likely to remain in focus as we await our esteemed BoE ‘Guvnor’s’ thoughts on Wednesday



The Pound likely to remain in focus as we await our esteemed BoE ‘Guvnor’s’ thoughts on Wednesday

UK

In a fairly quiet week for data etc, Mark Carney will be speaking at 9.30 on Wednesday morning as the Financial Policy Committee will be giving their assessment of the outlook for the stability and resilience of the financial sector. The market, of course, will be keenly listening to see if he flips or flops any clues about the direction of interest rates after the surprise move last week by Andy Haldane to vote for a rate hike. This of course sent the pound soaring as the market begins to factor in a rise in August. At the end of the week, the other highlight of the week is the GDP figure which will again put FX traders on tenterhooks.

The corporate calendar next week is looking similarly subdued with an earnings release due on Tuesday from Northgate, the light commercial vehicle hire people and DS Smith (packaging) on Thursday. We’re also expecting trading statements from Whitbread on Wednesday and spread betting favourite Tullow Oil on Friday.

US

On the other side of the pond, the highlight of the week if you exclude any potential Tweets, would be the GDP data on Thursday coinciding as it does with the weekly continuing and initial jobless claims. This week also, the ‘Fed speakers’ are out in force covering most days with their anecdotes on US monetary policy. The one who always seems to be a popular commentator is Bullard who is inevitably scheduled to perform on Thursday after the GDP data announcement.

Of course, don’t forget those Tweets as the burgeoning trade war continues its grip on market movements.

EU

Having announced their tariff retaliatory measures on Friday, the EU creeps back into its collective shell until, yes that’s right, Thursday with a European Council meeting in Brussels Chaired by M. Rompuy. There the other Heads of State will listen obediently to what they are told to do by Merkel and Co and probably who will probably lob a few more brickbats at the UK to try and ensure no one else gets any funny ideas about leaving ‘the Zone.’ Take note Italy.

Stock of the Week – Whitbread; trading statement 27/6

Results released in April came in slightly above consensus fuelled by Premier Inn and Costa. Outlook was toned down, however, as the environment was deteriorating and expectations for profit growth were likely to suffer as a result. How has trading been since that announcement and what is the latest on the Costa demerger?

Key Financial Events, Monday 25th to Friday 29nd June 2018:

Monday 25th

 - US New Home Sales & Change May @ 15.00

Tuesday 26th

 - US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price index y/y Apr @ 14.00

Wednesday 27th

 - UK BoE’ Carney Speaking & FPC Statement @ 9.30

 - US Durable Goods Orders May @ 13.30

Thursday

 - EU GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Jul @ 7.00

 - EU Business Climate Jun

 - US GDP Q1 @ 13.30

Friday

 - UK GDP & Current Account Q1 @ 9.30

 - EU CPI Jun @ 10.00

 - US Personal Consumption Expenditure y/y May @ 13.30

UK100 Chart

Open (Monday)

7638.89

Close (Thursday)

7556.43

Change

-1.07%

High

7702.02

Low

7550.46

WallStreet Chart

Open (Monday)

24845.28

Close (Thursday)

24461.75

Change

-1.54%

High

25000.53

Low

24412.95

Cable Chart

Open (Monday)

1.3270

Close (Thursday)

1.3262

Change

-0.06%

High

1.3359

Low

1.3156

Gold Chart

Open (Monday)

1282.7

Close (Thursday)

1270.1

Change

+0.98%

High

1286.2

Low

1263.9

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