Weekly Trading Update
29.01.16 Friday Morning
UK
A relatively quiet week figure wise (barring an as expected, if still disappointing, 0.5% increase in Q4 GDP, leading to a declining 2015 annual rate of 2.2% compared to 2.6% in 2014) has meant the FTSE has traded on the whims of the current macro-landscape. The main driver behind the index’s movements has, unsurprisingly, been the rise and fall (and rise again) of Brent Crude, the FTSE fluctuating up and down as the commodity flitted between £30 and $35 per barrel.
There was also major news in the banking sector; first RBS revealed it was putting another £2.5 billion aside for provisions for its bad behaviour, before George Osborne revealed on Thursday that the sale of the government’s stake in Lloyd’s was being halted until the markets began to recover.
Next week is a busy one for the entire market, and the FTSE is no expected. The Chinese manufacturing and services figures, released early Monday morning, will likely set the tone for the week before the UK figure is released later in the day. That is followed by the UK construction PMI on Tuesday, the services PMI on Wednesday and, to cap off a cluttered 4 day period, another Bank of England splurge on ‘Super Thursday’.
Eurozone
For much of the week the Eurozone had little to do, something that only exacerbated its macro-movements (especially on Thursday afternoon). Mario Draghi’s speech on Monday fails to resonate with investors come Tuesday morning, whilst figure wise the German Ifo business climate, import prices figure, retail sales and inflation figures all fell. The Spanish unemployment rate, meanwhile, hit its lowest point since mid-2011.
Friday was far busier; a staggeringly bad 0.2% Q4 GDP from France (leaving its annual rate at of 1.1%) was countered by an impressive 0.8% fourth quarter figure for Spain (the country’s 3% annual rate the best since 2007), with the region-wide inflation number expected at 0.4%.
Like the UK the Eurozone sees a cavalcade of manufacturing and services PMIs on Monday and Wednesday respectively, with the region-wide unemployment rate on Tuesday, and the German factory orders and French trade balance figures on Friday. Also of note will be the EU economic forecasts in the middle of the week.
US
After offering little on Monday, a strong US CB consumer sentiment figure (the best since last September) was the highlight of Tuesday, especially with Apple’s latest release being such a disappointment. Wednesday then saw the latest (and dovish) FOMC statement before the markets endured a disappointing set of durable goods orders figures on Thursday. Still to come is the USA’s own fourth quarter GDP figure, with analysts expecting an annualized change of 0.8%, compared to the 2% seen in Q3.
The US will easily be the biggest source of data next week; not only does the country release its own manufacturing and services PMIs (on Monday and Wednesday respectively), it also sees its personal spending and personal income figures, jobless claims, factory orders and, most importantly, the latest non-farm jobs report on Friday.
Stock of the week: Facebook Inc
As ever Facebook was overflowing with friends following its latest quarterly report on Wednesday evening; cementing its unparalleled position in the social media landscape with a 17% in daily active users to 1.04 billion, the company completed a trifecta of impressive figures with a 51.7% rise in revenue to $5.8 billion alongside a $900 million jump in profit to $1.6 billion year-on-year. It’s an astonishing set of results that puts even further distance between the big blue monster and its ostensible rival Twitter, with investors more than receptive to the report, Facebook climbing around 12% in the aftermath. Facebook Inc sits at a current trading price of $107.76 (IT-Finance.com, 29/01/2016).
Open (Monday)
5931.1
Close (Thursday)
5939.2
Change
+0.14%
High
6027.2
Low
5769.7
Open (Monday)
16080.5
Close (Thursday)
16062
Change
-0.12%
High
16236
Low
15724
Open (Monday)
1.4273
Close (Thursday)
1.43586
Change
+0.60%
High
1.44076
Low
1.41738
Open (Monday)
1105.6
Close (Thursday)
1116.1
Change
+0.95%
High
1120.1
Low
1105.6
(Source: IT-Finance.com 29/01/2016)
Economic Diary, 1st to 5th February 2016
Monday 1st February
1.00am – CNY Manufacturing PMI
1.00am – CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI
1.45am – CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI
8.15am – EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI
8.45am – EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI
8.50am – EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI
8.55am – EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI
9.00am – EUR Final Manufacturing PMI
9.30am – GBP Manufacturing PMI
9.30am – GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
1.30pm – USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
1.30pm – USD Personal Spending m/m
1.30pm – USD Personal Income m/m
2.45pm – USD Final Manufacturing PMI
3.00pm – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday 2nd February
8.00am – EUR Spanish Unemployment Change
8.55am – EUR German Unemployment Change
9.00am – EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
9.30am – GBP Construction PMI
10.00am – EUR Unemployment Rate
6.00pm – USD FOMC Member George Speaks
Wednesday 3rd February
1.45am – CNY Caixin Services PMI
8.15am – EUR Spanish Services PMI
8.45am – EUR Italian Services PMI
8.50am – EUR French Final Services PMI
8.55am – EUR German Final Services PMI
9.00am – EUR Final Services PMI
9.30am – GBP Services PMI
10.00am – EUR EU Economic Forecasts
10.00am – EUR Retail Sales m/m
1.15pm – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
2.45pm – USD Final Services PMI
3.00pm – USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
3.30pm – USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday 4th February
9.00am – EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
9.10am – EUR Retail PMI
12.00pm – GBP BoE Inflation Report
12.00pm – GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
12.00pm – GBP Monetary Policy Summary
12.00pm – GBP Official Bank Rate
12.45pm – GBP BoE Governor Carney Speaks
1.30pm – USD Unemployment Claims
1.30pm – USD Prelim Non-Farm Productivity q/q
3.00pm – USD Factory Orders m/m
Friday 5th February
7.00am – EUR German Factory Orders m/m
7.45am – EUR French Trade Balance
1.30pm – USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
1.30pm – USD Non-Farm Employment Change
1.30pm – USD Trade Balance
1.30pm – USD Unemployment Rate
Earnings releases, 1st to 5th February 2016
Monday 1st February
Mattel Inc – Q4 2015 Earnings Release
BT Group PLC – Q3 2016 Earnings Release
Tuesday 2nd February
Pfizer Inc – Q4 2015 Earnings Release
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc – Q4 2015 Earnings Release
BP PLC – Q4 2015 Earnings Release
Ocado Group PLC – Full Year 2015 Earnings Release
Wednesday 3rd February
Johnson Matthey PLC – Q3 2015 Trading Statement
GlaxoSmithKline PLC – Q4 2015 Earnings Release
GW Pharmaceuticals PLC – Q1 2016 Earnings Release
Thursday 4th February
AstraZeneca PLC – Full Year 2015 Earnings Release
Royal Dutch Shell PLC – Q4 & Full Year 2015 Earnings Release
Smith & Nephew PLC – Q4 2015 Earnings Release
Friday 5th February
BG Group PLC – Q4 & Full Year 2015 Earnings Release
It's easy to open an account
- Fill in our simple online application form
- Fund your account
- Start trading the global markets instantly!
SEARCH FOR AN ARTICLE:
Enter a keyword and search for all relevant articlesMARKET ANALYSIS
RECENT POSTS
DISCLAIMER
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investors lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. For professional clients, spread betting and CFD trading can also result in losses larger than your initial stake or deposit.
Spreadex Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, provides an execution only service and does not provide advice in any way. Nothing within this update should be deemed to constitute the provision of investment advice, recommendations, any other professional advice in any way, or a record of our trading prices. This update does not constitute or form part of an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor shall it or the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract therefore. Any persons placing trades based on their interpretation of the comments or information within this update does so entirely at their own risk.
No representation, warranty, or undertaking, express or limited, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained within this update by Spreadex Ltd or any of its employees and no liability is accepted by such persons for the accuracy or completeness of any such information or opinions. As such, no reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information and opinions contained within this update.
The information contained within this update is the intellectual property of Spreadex Ltd and is protected by UK and International copyright laws. All rights reserved. Users may however freely download, distribute and reproduce extracts of the contents, subject always to accrediting Spreadex Ltd as the source and providing a hyperlink to www.spreadex.com.
