Weekly Trading Update

Continued data releases for hot topic, inflation



UK are not only announcing crucial inflation figures, but also unemployment data, of which both could send massive shockwaves throughout the markets.

UK

CPI announcements are set to be released on Wednesday morning. Figures have been hovering around 3% in the last couple months, but analysts are expecting a much higher figure of 3.9%.

This does not come as a surprise to many as inflation has been a hot topic recently, although if the CPI turns out to be higher than this forecast, markets could take a turn for the worse if investors start to panic.

Tuesday morning, we are expecting the ONS to release the ILO Unemployment Rate or Jobless Rate.

The last 2 months data have both been as expected at 4.5% and 4.6%, and many are expecting for the recent downward trend, since February, to continue.

Due to consumer spending being highly correlated with the labour market, investors will be hoping for a lower-than-expected figure showing strength in the UK economy.

US

Retail Sales which have a significant impact on GDP will be released by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday.

Many are expecting this to be higher than the previous figure of 0.7%, as it is forecasted to be 1.1%.

Although the stronger sales figure may not paint the full picture of how the economy is recovering, it can be a good indicator of short-term consumer behaviour, since the ending of many restrictions.

Rest of the World

The Eurozone are set to release data on their GDP for Q3 on Tuesday. The EU will be looking to surpass the previous figure of 3.7% (YoY), but Europe has not seen the strength in recovery that places like the US have, thanks to slower cutting of restrictions.

Japan is also due to announce GDP figures for Q3, but unlike many western countries, they are expecting a decline of -0.2%.

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