Important start to the new year for Economic data in the US

2022 starts off with some crucial data releases for the US, from employment data to PMI, while the rest of the world is rather subdued this week.

US

Tuesday brings the first OPEC Meeting of the year as the 13 members, and 11 other oil rich countries get together to discuss issues ranging from energy markets to how much oil they will produce. Many believe they will stick with their existing policy and confirm 400,000 BPD oil output increase for February. Statements throughout the day will likely cause volatility in the markets as investors will be closely following each announcement and decision. Furthermore, later that day, the Manufacturing PMI will be released, which is an important indication of the general business health in the US and is expected to keep expanding but at a slower rate of 60.2 compared to 61.1 previously.

On Wednesday, the Employment Change data comes out, which is usually the report seen as the forerunner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls, published two days later, because of the correlation between the two. At the moment this figure is expected to fall from 534K to 438K despite a predicted increase in Non-Farm Payrolls. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are set to be released, which investors will dissect, looking for clues regarding the policy outlook alongside the vote split.

Services PMI is going to be set out on the Thursday, which should show a more current view on how the service sector, a very large part of the economy, is performing. Like the Manufacturing PMI, this figure is also predicted to fall from 69.1 to 67.

Arguably one of the most important pieces of data is going to be released at the end of the week, Non-Farm Payrolls. This figure is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers, as continuous strong growth in employment figures, increases inflationary pressures, and therefore, it is likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. It is currently predicted to almost double from 210K to 400K.

Rest of the World

The only other significant economic news across the rest of the globe is in the EU, as on Friday, their CPI figures are released. A significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone, the figure is expected to fall from 4.9% to 4.7%. Also, Retail Sales, predicted to jump from 1.4% to 5.6%, is going to be set out, which shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. The Christmas period is most likely why we are expecting such a large increase as changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending.