Bank of England meeting livens up quiet week

The second week of May hasn’t got too much to recommend beyond the reaction to the French election results and an inflation-eyeing get-together for the Bank of England.

UK
The UK really does not have a lot to work with this week. Monday to Wednesday is a write-off in terms of data, producing little in the way of substance; even Friday sees things wrap-up on a conspicuously weak note. Instead the country has packed anything worth worrying about into Thursday, which not only sees both the manufacturing and industrial production figures, but the latest meeting from the Bank of England.

So far Mark Carney and his colleagues have held off from combatting inflation’s consistent rise with raising rates. It is perhaps unlikely that the MPC will decide to act this Thursday; however, investors will be interested to see if there are the kind of hawkish grumbles that may suggest movement in the coming months.

US
There is nothing too exciting on offer from the US this week though, unlike the UK, it does have a steady stream of data to tide investors over. Following on from last Friday’s non-farm jobs report, Tuesday gives the markets another glimpse at US employment with the JOLTS job openings data, before Wednesday and Thursday see the import prices and PPI readings respectively. Friday is a bit more interesting, with the inflation and retail sales figures (both of which were in the red last month) joined by the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment data.

Eurozone
Though France actually has Monday off due to Victory Day, the start of the week is likely going to be dominated by the reaction to Sunday’s presidential election between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. Macron’s victory in the first round was a huge boost to the markets, so if he secures the keys to the Elysee Palace there could be another rally around the corner.

Going into the election, Spreadex has Macron at a binary spread of 86.6-94.2 - where a win makes up to 100 and a loss 0 - to Le Pen's 6.6-11.2.

Elsewhere the week is populated by middling data from Germany and France, including industrial production readings on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively and some GDP data for the former on Friday. There are also the EU economic forecasts on Thursday, and the Eurozone-wide industrial production figure at the end the week.

Stock of the week: Walt Disney Co – Q2 2017 Earnings Release
2016 was a rocky one for Disney, the stock spending decent chunks of the year below the $100 mark. However, since the New Year began the House of Mouse seems to have got its groove back. Opening at $104.29, a smidge higher than where it had been a year before, the stock hit the ground running and hasn’t stopped since, climbing to an near year and a half high of $116.10 at the end of April – a mere 6 dollars off of its record peak struck in August 2015.

In terms of Tuesday’s Q2 figures, analysts are expecting Disney to post a 3.7% increase in both earnings per share, from $1.36 to $1.41 year-on-year, and revenue, from $12.97 billion to $13.45 billion. As for specifics, updates on Shanghai Disney, merchandise sales and, of course, ESPN will be welcome.

• UK100
• Wall Street
• GBP/USD
• Gold

Open (Monday)

7192.3

Close (Thursday)

7257.5

Change

+65.2

High

7281.7

Low

7191.2

Open (Monday)

20930.3

Close (Thursday)

20938

Change

+7.7

High

21012.95

Low

20845.05

Open (Monday)

1.29494

Close (Thursday)

1.29221

Change

-0.00273

High

1.29515

Low

1.28309

Open (Monday)

1272

Close (Thursday)

1228.3

Change

-43.7

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1272.4

Low

1225.9