Sports Blog 06/04/2016: UEFA Champions League Preview – Quarter-Final 1st Legs, Wednesday 6th April 2016

With Barcelona and Bayern nabbing expected (if unconvincing) wins last night, how will Manchester City fare in their own (and first ever) Champions League quarter-final when travel to PSG at 7.45pm on BT Sport Europe?

It hasn’t been the best of seasons for Manchester City. Whilst they may have won the League Cup, they have been fairly woeful in the league, unable to string together 2 consecutive wins since the middle of October. In the last 2 months alone they have lost to Leicester, Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester United, looking like a team that are just waiting for Pep Guardiola to arrive. Even their place in the Champions League next season is in doubt; somehow still in 4th place their Manchester rivals are breathing down their necks one point behind, whilst West Ham are also within striking distance. Things did admittedly pick up at the weekend, the return of Kevin De Bruyne (who heads in Wednesday night at a Super Mega PGM of 10-14) propelling Pellegrini’s team to an emphatic 4-0 victory over Bournemouth.



Yet they are coming up against a side hell-bent to reach the upper echelons of the European elite. For whilst they have the star players, the domestic prowess and, perhaps most importantly, the money, PSG likely won’t be able to convince their naysayers they are worthy to be spoken in the same breath as Barca and Bayern until they do the job in Europe. Romping to the top of table, and the title, with a 25 gap between them and 2nd place Monaco is impressive; its less impressive, however, when you stack Ligue 1 side-by-side with the cream of the continent’s crop. It is also a question of player-satisfaction; whilst he likely enjoys the adoration he receives at PSG one imagines Zlatan Ibrahimovic (who, with 30 goals in 37 games, has a Super Mega PGM of 54-62) will be desperate to capture the one major club title that has eluded him throughout his career.

That hunger, combined with City’s lacklustre and inconsistent form, explains the fairly conclusive spreads offered by our traders, Spreadex plumping for a home win at a PSG/Manchester City Goal Supremacy spread of 0.8-1 with a Total Goals spread of 2.6-2.8.

Wednesday’s other game is likely to be a slightly less intense affair, though Real Madrid would do well not to rest on their laurels when they travel to Wolfsburg at 7.45pm on BT Sport 2. Like City Real Madrid are in the midst of a season to forget; they are 7 points off the pace in La Liga (despite that confidence-boosting win against Barca at the weekend) and were kicked out of the Copa Del Rey after fielding an ineligible player. Yet the Champions League has provided some respite for the ostensible Galacticos, Real having the best record in the competition this season with 7 wins and 1 draw (against, incidentally, PSG). Cristiano Ronaldo, meanwhile, is 4 goals away from matching the Champions League goal-record (17) he set in 2013/14, the Portuguese powerhouse heading into the quarter-final at Super Mega PGM of 59-69.



If Real Madrid are having a sub-par season then spare a thought for their opponents Wolfsburg. From the heady heights of 2nd in last season’s Bundesliga the club now find themselves in real danger of not qualifying for Europe. Things have been pretty dire since the New Year began, 3 wins out of 11 league games causing the club to languish in 8th place, 6 behind Schalke and Mainz immediately above them. And whilst they finished top of their Champions League group they have had an easier ride of it than most, finishing above PSV Eindhoven, an awful Manchester United and CSKA Moscow to set up a last 16 tie against Gent, which Wolfsburg won 4-2 on aggregate.

The quarter-final marks a serious step up for the German club, one our Spreadex traders don’t expect them to be able to handle, offering a Real Madrid/Wolfsburg (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.9-1.1 with a Total Goals spread of 3.1-3.3.

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