Spreadex Market Update

European markets continue to suffer ahead of US non-farm jobs report




With a miserly 0.2 month-on-month increase to 51.0 (below the 51.4 forecast) the UK’s manufacturing PMI effectively remained at a 3 year low this morning, that news understandably failing to turn the FTSE’s Friday frown upside down. Instead the UK index widened its losses to around 80 points, matters not helped by the notable declines seen by both Brent Crude and copper.

The Eurozone led the day’s losses, the DAX and CAC plunging 1.6% and 1.8% respectively. This despite a largely decent display from the region’s manufacturing sector; whilst Spain underperformed expectations (adding to the country’s increasingly long list of economic embarrassments) and France remained below 50.0, there were solid showings from both Germany and Italy, the Eurozone-wide PMI also seeing a slight increase to 51.6 (still, admittedly, near its 12 month lows).

So, with the European session in a sorry state it is down to the US open to revitalise the markets, and what better way to do it than with a non-farm Friday? Analysts are expecting wage growth to bounce back to 0.2% from last month’s woeful -0.2%, but with a slip in the headline number to 206k from 242k; the discrepancy between the two figures may lead to a mixed reaction from investors, matters complicated by the lack of clarity over whether the frequent (if inconsistent) ‘good is bad’ mind-set is in operation following last week’s fairly dovish comments from Janet Yellen. The afternoon’s economic excitement doesn’t end with the non-farm jobs report, however; adding to a rather overstuffed Friday are the Markit and ISM manufacturing PMIs, the former expected at 51.5 with the latter forecast to climb out of contraction territory to a healthier, if still low, 50.8.

 

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