Spreadex Market Update
European markets lurch between mild losses and gains, US futures suggest decent open
A decent, if not as high as expected, UK construction PMI helped lift the FTSE away from its session lows, even if the reddish hue of its key oil stocks poses a potential threat to the index’s gains as the day goes on. Brent Crude remains just under $49 per barrel, roughly a 1.2% drop on the day and is a continuation of the reversal that began yesterday; things likely won’t be helped by this afternoon’s US crude oil inventories, forecast to be down 0.7 million barrels compared to the 5.5 million barrel contraction last week. The Eurozone, meanwhile, followed much of the same pattern as the FTSE this morning, with the DAX flip-flopping either side of the 10000 mark whilst the CAC looked steady above 4500.
Things could look a bit more robust this afternoon, with the US futures currently suggesting a 150 point jump for the Dow Jones after its near 400 point collapse on Tuesday. The US movements will likely be dictated by today’s data dump, with ADP non-farm employment change, revised non-farm productivity and factory orders figures dropping throughout the afternoon.
The ADP number will be of especial interest to the markets due to the lack of clarity over where the Fed stands on a September rate-hike. As has been the trend for most of 2015, last month’s ADP figure failed to match analysts’ expectations, so today’s forecasts should perhaps be taken with a pinch of salt. However, if analysts are indeed correct, the expected 204k is a hearty number that that would point to a respectable showing from Friday’s official figure, and would add to the (admittedly China-blighted) case for a lift-off this month.
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