Spreadex Market Update

Investors ignore micro-news to focus on dire (China-fuelled) macro-landscape




Though the current Saudi Arabia/Iran tensions may be fuelling a Brent Crude bounce back (the black stuff now up 1.5%), copper has continued to collapse this morning, giving the FTSE’s commodity sector all the reason it needed to carry its persistent predilection for heavy losses into the New Year. The fact that the UK’s manufacturing PMI hit a 3 month low of 51.9 only exacerbated the FTSE’s failings this Monday, the index losing all of its Christmas gains as it continued to fall by over 2%. The cherry on top? The pound is now at a 9 month low against the dollar, a toxic cocktail of Brexit fears, weak commodities and the worry that interest rates are a long way from being raised leaving sterling to suffer.

The Eurozone actually saw a morning full of manufacturing highs, the French and German figures at 21 and 4 month peaks respectively, with the region-wide number itself beating estimates at 53.2 against the 53.1 forecast. Yet you wouldn’t be able to tell by looking at the Eurozone indices; the CAC kicked off the year with a 2.7% decline whilst the DAX, doing what the DAX does best, dropped a whopping 375 points.

Looking ahead to the US open, and things are unlikely to change for the better; the Dow Jones is currently warming up for a 270 point plunge after the bell, leaving it close to the 2 month lows hit in the middle of December. And though there is still the Markit and ISM manufacturing PMIs to come (forecast at 51.1 and 49.1 respectively), as the European indices have displayed investors aren’t too interested in the micro figures when the China-fuelled macro-landscape looks so dire.


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