Spreadex Market Update

Big rebound on Wall Street after positive ISM surprise



Major US indices soared higher on Wednesday after a set of better-than-expected economic data led by July’s PMI Services alleviated increasing worries of a brewing recession. S&P and DJIA gained 1.56% and 1.29% respectively, whereas NASDAQ realized most capital inflows and advanced 2.59% as several tech stocks reaped rewards.


Key Factors for today

● Major US indices risk-on after series of upbeat economic data surprise
● Fed speakers believe markets are wrong in expecting cuts or being in recession
● OPEC+ production up marginally but WTI fell after US inventories rose
● Turbine controversy keeps Natural gas prices elevated
● Moderna and Paypal gain substantially, but Match and SolarEdge add pessimism 

 

ISM sends Nasdaq 20% above June low

A handful of upbeat PMI reports released on Wednesday bolstered all three US major indices, with the Nasdaq gaining the most. Yesterday’s session marked a staggering 20% gain off the lows of June for the index.

Components of the ISM NMI showed overperformance of new orders while prices paid diminished, supporting hopes that inflation might be near its peak. The indicator accelerated to 56.7, compared to 53.5 expected and 55.3 previously posted. Factory orders also surprised to the upside.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s Daly said that markets were likely ahead of themselves in expecting rate cuts next year while Bullard reaffirmed the US is not currently in recession.
New OPEC+ production target sends WTI 6% lower
The oil cartel agreed to raise production by just 100K bpd above the August targeted increase, for a total increase of 748K bpd in September. This represents less than 1% of the total OPEC member production of ~30M bpd.
However, given the distribution agreement, and that most members have already reached their maximum production capacity, it would only mean about 34K bpd of effective production increase. 
Oil prices ended up sliding lower though. The daily high of $98/b was quickly reversed with a drop of more than 6% - seeing black gold end the session at $92/b. 
The weekly EIA report showed inventories unexpectedly rising to 4.467M barrels, missing expectations of a -0.639M barrels draw, contributing to the selloff.
Natural gas 3.5% higher on turbine controversy

The missing turbine is still preventing the resumption of gas shipments from Russia fully through Nord Stream 1, Gazprom PJSC said after German Chancellor Scholz insisted that there were no impediments for Russia to receive the turbine.

Gas supplies are steady at 20% of normal capacity to Germany but with winter approaching Europe is seeking to store more gas. Natural gas prices closed 3.50% higher despite EIA’s inventories jumping from -3.30M to 0.163M on -1.614M expectation.

Scholz also said he was open to potentially extending the life of nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, the Freeport LNG terminal in the US got approval to renew operations.

 

Market movers

● Moderna was up 16% after earnings beat and new $3B buyback program
● Paypal ends 9.25% higher on strong profit guidance and $2B Elliott stake
● Match plummets 19.1% after revenue and forecast miss
● Solar Edge sent 17.5% lower on EPS miss despite upbeat sales
● Clorox fell 6% after earnings were in line, but offered guidance below expectations
● Mercadolibre rose 12% on better-than-expected results
● Lucid slid 12% after disappointing on the top and bottom line

 

Looking out for
● BOE interest rate decisions and MPC vote
● US initial jobless claims ahead of NFP
● Fed speakers

DISCLAIMER


Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investors lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. For professional clients, spread betting and CFD trading can also result in losses larger than your initial stake or deposit.

Spreadex Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, provides an execution only service and does not provide advice in any way. Nothing within this update should be deemed to constitute the provision of investment advice, recommendations, any other professional advice in any way, or a record of our trading prices. This update does not constitute or form part of an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor shall it or the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract therefore. Any persons placing trades based on their interpretation of the comments or information within this update does so entirely at their own risk.

No representation, warranty, or undertaking, express or limited, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained within this update by Spreadex Ltd or any of its employees and no liability is accepted by such persons for the accuracy or completeness of any such information or opinions. As such, no reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information and opinions contained within this update.

The information contained within this update is the intellectual property of Spreadex Ltd and is protected by UK and International copyright laws. All rights reserved. Users may however freely download, distribute and reproduce extracts of the contents, subject always to accrediting Spreadex Ltd as the source and providing a hyperlink to www.spreadex.com.