Spreadex Market Update

Bullish UK growth sentiment



Bullish UK growth sentiment has steadily gained momentum this week with OECD forecasts showing the UK above the US and Japan in terms of growth potential for H2 of 2013.  UK officials appear in high spirits at the G20 summit expecting to be singled as an example of good for fellow Euro members. Confidence is so high in fact that investors are braced for the MPC to hike interest rates as early as 2014 despite Mark Carney’s recent foreword guidance announcement.  This sentiment has been reflected in bond prices with the 10-year GILT yield rising above 3% yesterday for the first time since 2011.  Expect these bulls to be watching the manufacturing production results at 9.30 for further confirmation of their growth momentum theory.

 

A big day for the US today with all eyes on the  final day of G20, the US/Russian relationship has come under heavy scrutiny amidst the divide over Syria.  With the US senate moving forward on US unification on Syria the outcome of G20 is likely to cause high volatility today.  Non-Farm payroll will be the hero or villain of the day, an outperformance of the 178k forecast will boost or limit the fallout from the G20 whereas a missed target will only exacerbate it.   An unfavourable G20 outcome and a missed non-farm forecast could investors to take advantage of high yields in a flight to quality, leading to a market drop-off.

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