Spreadex Market Update

Record sales for Alibaba expected as Single's Day in China approaches.



The FTSE100 continued its strong opening during the day, reaching a peak of 6602.3 before consistently hovering around 6570-6590. This comes during a Monday where the Confederation of British Industry called for an increase in the subsidisation of child care in order to help boost the UK’s economy and those who were severely affected by the recession. In Europe the day has brought mixed news, with the euro up against the dollar ($1.25 per euro) and the pound (down to 1.27 euro per pound), being countered by a stagnant DAX (closing around where it opened at 9302) and negative news from Italy. Their industrial production shrank 0.9%, bigger than forecast, throwing doubt on any reversal of economic fortune for big boot Italy any time soon.

After a recent bleak week for the rouble, Monday brought Moscow some good news as the Russian central bank decided to float the currency, leading to a 3.1% rise against the dollar to 45.47. Many commentators attributed this increase partially to renewed vigour in Brent crude oil, which rose by 1.35% today to 8419, providing a brief rest bite from the freefall of the past few months. It is ironic that the turnaround for the rouble can in part be attributed to an oil price increase, as this minor hike in oil prices is largely down to the volatile hotspot that is the Ukraine/Russia border. Fears over the build-up of separatist rebel forces (help to whom Russia denies giving) has led to the brief rise. However, the continued overproduction of oil and Saudi bullying tactics means that this oil-increase may be short-lived.

There has been limited news out of the APEC summit, as day one only hints at the geopolitical movements to come. Obama’s pledge to increase trade openness with China was given a symbolic boost with the shock announcement to extend visas for Chinese nationals. Presently the expiry date for a Chinese visa is a year; now the length will be 10 years for business and tourist visas, and 5 years for student and cultural exchange visas. America will be hoping this eases tensions following China’s resentment over their exclusion from the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership. On the first day of President Obama’s visit to China the Dow’s upsurge calmed slightly, opening only 2 points higher than it closed on Friday, at 17562. The S&P500 opened 1 point higher at 2026.7, with the NASDAQ making similar gains, 2 points higher at 4153. And after slipping from the 115.498 yen per dollar high, the USD/JPY is still strong at 114.611.

Cairn Energy was the big winner of the day, with the announcement of the second oil discovery in Senegal in the past month leading to a nearly 12% jump in stock prices to 176.1. Serco, on the other hand, had intense Monday blues, as hugely slashed profit forecasts and the announcement of £1.5 billion expected to be written off due to failed contracts, saw shares plummet by 32%. The outsourcing firm are now trading at 210 after falling to a low of 208.

Finally, the most interesting thing to watch going into tomorrow is something that many in the West will be clueless over. Tomorrow is Single’s Day in China, the anti-Valentine’s Day, and the largest online shopping day in the world. This may sound quaint, but the numbers are far from it; this year Alibaba is forecast to make $8.18 billion in sales, up from $5.7 billion last year. Alibaba closed at 11439 on Friday. After Single’s Day this price might look like a bargain. Loneliness has never been so appealing.

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