Spreadex Market Update
US data comes and goes, leaving investors with no choice but to wait for Fed statement
Building permits were slightly better than expected, something that was effectively cancelled out by a worse than forecast performance from the country’s housing starts. Jobless claims, meanwhile, fell to a near 2 month low, only for any hawkish goodwill to be wiped away by a 25 month low for the Philly Fed manufacturing index. The impact of these figures was muted for a couple of reasons: firstly, they paint an incredibly muddled picture of the USA’s economic landscape, a trend that has been all too familiar in the last few months; secondly, it is incredibly unlikely that the Fed would be swayed by a selection of second-tier US data, rendering the figures inert.
It meant that the Dow Jones opened basically flat, never straying too far from yesterday’s 4 week high, with the DAX and the CAC reflecting a similar, if slightly more positive, stance. The FTSE was the only index with any real movement this Thursday, even if it was solely in a downwards direction, as it sporadically dipped below 6200.
And that’s it. The important data for the day has come and gone, meaning all investors can do is wait for Yellen to reveal what the central bank has in store. Analysts are erring on the side of no rate hike, but without enough conviction to completely rule-out a lift-off being announced this evening, whilst the forex markets broadly seem to suggest a relatively dovish statement, though that could all change if the Fed is firm in its forward guidance.
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