Spreadex Market Update

Another piece of US data, another miss; leaked (or fake) Juncker proposal suggests progress




The latest piece of US data saw the NAHB housing market index miss its targets, in yet another sign that US economy appears far from recovery the Federal Reserve wants to see. However, due to the dollar/rate hike complications, the reaction to each piece of data, good or bad, can vary so dramatically that regardless of their record levels these highs feel based on increasingly shaky ground, even if this uncertainty isn’t manifesting itself in as dramatic a style as it is over in the Eurozone.

A Greek leak, (sort of) denied by the EU Commission, is suggesting that Jean-Claude Juncker has proposed a new deal to inspire a much needed breakthrough, with concessions made towards primary budget surplus targets and a review of Greece’s collective bargaining agreements whilst remaining firm on the implementation of the ENFIA property tax, a sticking point for many involved on both sides of the Greek divide.

If accepted, this deal would require Greece’s creditors to hand over €1.8 billion in loans alongside the €1.9 billion in profits the ECB has made on its Greek bonds. The deal Juncker has proposed would appear to favour Greece over its creditors (if anyone can actually claim to be a winner in this issue anymore), something that may prove problematic. Nevertheless, this news, and the very concept of progress however unlikely, has buoyed the Eurozone indices, which were already benefiting from notable losses for the euro-dollar.

The FTSE went the way of the Dow, not DAX, this afternoon; this meant that the UK index lay limp across the trading room floor adding nothing to an already painfully quiet Monday. Things in theory be a bit more interesting on Tuesday, as the UK prepares to test the markets’ appetite for yet another low inflation (or is that deflation?) figure.

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