Spreadex Market Update

No fed tapering



The results are in, no fed tapering. With tapering seen as all but certain frenzy ensued last night when contrary to popular belief the Fed held back causing markets to soar. This move by the Fed comes as a shock to investors who had positioned themselves and effectively accepted that Chairman Bernanke would start the reduction. Bernanke announced the reasoning behind the decision as a precautionary measure whilst cutting growth forecasts from 2.5% back in June to 2.2%. Recent economic data such as the spike in long term interest rates and unemployment being “Unacceptably high” are believed to have spooked the Fed as they decide to “Await more evidence”. The fear is that the economy, should tapering of QE3 occur, would not be self-sustainable and the recovery so far witnessed erased. More indicators will be available this afternoon when US unemployment claims are announced as well as US existing home sales.

The influence of vice chairwoman and now front runner for the top job at the Fed Janet Yellen had in the decision is sure to be brought up. Would this have been the outcome were the more hawkish Larry Summers still in play?

UK and Asian markets were also boosted by the announcement with the Nikkei rising 1.9% and the FTSE opening up this morning as markets anticipating and ready for a taper reacted. Investors will spend most of the day today attempting to interpret this move by the Fed and speculate on the long term implications. With the FOMC sending mixed signals on the possibility of a 2013 taper expect confusion and therefore volatility today.

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