Spreadex Market Update

Broad Market Rally on Monday Gives Way to Softer Start on Tuesday



Markets were broadly higher yesterday, capitalising on the continued weakness in USD. European assets traded higher despite further hawkish ECB commentary. Following on from the comments we heard from ECB’s Knot over the weekend, ECB chief Lagarde yesterday reiterated that the ECB would stay the course with rate hikes, signalling further aggressive action to come, in a bid to bring inflation back down to target. On the geo-political front, tensions between the US and China ratcheted higher again as the US challenged China with evidence of some Chinese companies’ involvement in the US war effort. Iran was also seen issuing fresh threats to the West, marking an escalation of tensions. The move is in response to the recommendation from the European Parliament that the IRGC be classed as a terrorist organisation.

 

Key Factors for Today

- USD remains muted – PMI data sets in focus today
- Equities higher on USD soft-patch – European assets shrug off hawkish ECB comments
- JPY sees return to demand amidst increased geopolitical tensions
- Metals turn higher – gold breaks out
- Crude muted by demand concerns – global PMIs in focus today

 

Coming Up

- EUR – Flash manufacturing & services PMI
- UK – Flash manufacturing & services PMI
- US – Flash manufacturing & services PMI

 

Equities Higher on Monday – Softer Start Today

Equities markets saw solid gains yesterday with indices rallying across the board in response to a muted US Dollar. Today, attention will turn to a raft of PMI data sets which will give the latest glimpse into global economic performance. Any signs of a pickup in activity recently will no doubt be welcomed by investors leading to further equities gains. However, any surprise weakness in these readings from the US, UK and Eurozone will no doubt put the focus back on recessionary risks, leading risk markets lower near-term.

 

Microsoft Earnings in Focus

US earnings season heats up again today with several big names reporting. Microsoft, Verizon, Johnson & Johnson and visa are among the heavy hitters posting results today. Microsoft in particular will be closely watched as a barometer for the big tech names to come later in the season with the Nasdaq likely to be highly led by the group’s results today.

 

JPY Sees Fresh Demand

Following recent weakness on the back of last week’s BOJ meeting, JPY has swung back into favour across the European open on Tuesday. JPY is benefiting from a softer start for risk assets today it seems, leading across the G10 FX space. For now, not seeing any news-flow attached to this move though the reversal lower in the Nikkei and the accompanying spike in JPY suggests a specific driver so will be worth monitoring incoming news today for colour on this.

 

Gold Breaks Out – Oil Muted on Demand Concerns

In the metals and commodities space, gold and silver are both seeing better demand today. Gold in particular is breaking out to fresh highs again, benefiting from the weakness in USD, while silver is remains rangebound for now. Crude is still seeing fairly muted action for now, though today’s PMI releases have the potential to drive some volatility. Concerns over the global demand outlook are keeping oil prices anchored lower for now so any weakness in today’s PMI readings will no doubt exacerbate this.

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