Spreadex Market Update

FTSE rises ahead of crucial Q4 GDP figure, but Brexit fears/China/retail sales could impact growth




Up around 0.6%, the FTSE has continued its rebound this morning, following on from its unlikely surge at the end of trading on Wednesday. The upward movement from Brent Crude has caused a wave of green to overcome the UK index’s crucial oil and mining stocks, in turn allowing the FTSE to flirt seriously with the 6000 mark for the first time in a fortnight.

However, a major spanner in the works could be thrown in if the day’s first look at the UK’s fourth quarter GDP disappoints. Analysts are expecting 0.5%, marginally better than the 0.4% seen back in Q3; yet there is more than a chance that the figure might underperform, with the Chinese slowdown, Brexit fears AND those weaker than hoped for Christmas retail sales all swirling around to potentially take a point or two off the reading.

The Eurozone indices just about matched the FTSE this Thursday morning; well, sort of. The DAX lagged behind, seeing a 0.2% rise, whilst the CAC jumped a more respectable 0.5%. The German index appears to have been impacted by an unexpected fall in the country’s import prices, slipping from -0.2% to -1.2% month-on-month. A better than forecast fall in the Spanish unemployment rate (at a still whopping 20.9% its lowest since the middle of 2011) seems to have countered that German data somewhat, allowing the majority of the region’s indices to post solid gains.


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