Spreadex Market Update

Risk sentiment rattled by China Covid unrest



Equities Under Pressure

Equities prices are seeing a more muted start to the week against a backdrop of uncertainty around civil unrest in China. Added to this, safe-haven demand for USD is also adding downside pressure. If events in China intensify this week equities look vulnerable to further losses near-term. However, if the situation calms down, attention should turn back to the less hawkish outlook for the Fed, with USD set to cool further if the prospect of a smaller December hike gains more traction. In this scenario, equities should be seen higher across the week.

Risk FX Falling, JPY Stronger on Safe-Haven Demand

In FX, a softer tone to risk markets on Monday is seeing fresh safe-haven support for JPY. The Yen has been higher across the board over late Asian and early European trading today with headline moves against risk currencies, such as AUD and NZD, which are seeing the weakest performance so far today. With events in China ongoing, traders will be closely monitoring headlines which look set to continue to shape price action ahead of the US labour reports later in the week.

RBA’s Lowe Optimistic Over Soft Landing Chances

Overnight, RBA governor Lowe struck an optimistic tone noting that the bank feels the domestic economy has a stronger chance at achieving a soft landing when compared with most of its peers. While Lowe remains concerned about demand in the economy, and is watching the housing and energy market, Lowe drew confidence from the country’s contained wages growth when compared with other developed economies.

Metals Weaker, Oil Hits Fresh 2022 Lows

In the metals and commodities space, both gold and silver are seeing a softer start to the week with USD picking up safe-haven demand. For now, both remain slightly off recent highs but are yet to make a fresh downturn. Crude prices have been knocked sharply lower, hitting fresh 2022 lows as renewed fears for the demand outlook in China weigh on sentiment. Focus this week will shift to the upcoming OPEC meeting with risks of further production cuts to be announced in light of the ongoing downtrend in oil prices.

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