Spreadex Market Update

Stimulus-disappointed fall in China hurts Europe at the open, with crucial Eurozone inflation data still to come




With the Shanghai Composite falling around 3% (and nearing lows not seen since November 2014 during the day’s trading) as investors dealt with their post-G20 disappointment at the lack of specific stimulus plans for China’s ailing economy the Asian session only portended bad things for Europe this morning.

The FTSE dropped by around 50 points after the bell; still above 6000, but unable to capitalise on the momentum it built at the end of last week. This despite the fact that Brent Crude appears to be holding steady-ish at $35.50 per barrel (though, to be fair, basing any kind of positive movement on oil at the moment is a fool’s errand given how volatile the commodity has been this month). The day is generally light on UK data, the net lending to individuals figure (expected at £5.2 billion against £4.4 billion last month) the only number of note.

The focus, instead, will be on the Eurozone; already a far worse than forecast fall in the Germany’s import prices (the worst since last September) has swiftly countered the improvement in the country’s retail sector (sales at their best level since last August), leading the DAX to fall just shy of 1% as the day began. Still to come is arguably the biggest piece of data of the day, the Eurozone’s region-wide inflation figure; expected to fall back to 0.0% following last month’s 0.3% (which itself was revised down from an initial reading of 0.4%), such a drop will likely ensure action in March’s ECB meeting. Whether the Eurozone indices take it as a sign of impending stimulus, however, is the big question; the DAX and its peers are normally very receptive to data that increases the chances of Draghi dipping into his big bag of QE, yet this morning the indices have struck a notably negative tone, something that may only be exacerbated by another weak inflation figure.

 

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