Spreadex Market Update

Inauspicious end to March ahead of Friday’s manufacturing PMI and non-farm jobs report onslaught




With the US jobless claims, jumping up to their worst level since the start of the month, countered by a notable rebound to 53.6 from the previously contraction-territory lurking Chicago PMI there was little American direction for investors to follow this Thursday. This left the Dow Jones flirting with flatness as the day went on, capping off a March that has seen it grow over 1000 points with a thoroughly tame afternoon of trading.

Of course there is likely another reason for investors’ reticence this Thursday, a reason that goes beyond it being March’s end. Tomorrow is a bumper, and potentially bumpy, start to the month, April kicking off with the kind of data discharge that may leave investors feeling a bit queasy. Not only do the markets have to contend with the non-farm jobs report (an expected improvement in wage growth, from -0.1% to 0.2%, likely to be joined by a slip in the headline figure, from 242k to 206k), but the afternoon also sees the Markit and ISM manufacturing figures AND the revised UoM consumer sentiment number. It will be interesting to see a) whether investors’ aversion to rate hikes (and joy at a dovish Janet Yellen) will dictate the post-non-farm reaction and b) whether said reaction can see the Dow Jones edge ever closer to the 18000 mark.

Whilst the US markets quietly prepared themselves for tomorrow’s statistical onslaught the European indices continued to end the month in a most inauspicious style, the FTSE, DAX and CAC falling 0.4%, 0.7% and 1.1% respectively. Not that the region will be completely ceding the spotlight to the US on Friday; the start to the session is cluttered with the region’s manufacturing figures (following an early in the morning, and always ominous, dispatch from China) joined by the Eurozone-wide unemployment number (which is aiming for a 6th consecutive month of contraction).


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