Weekly Trading Update

01.08.14 Friday Morning




Investors will look back at this week as a roller coaster ride in conditions that have been particularly difficult to trade in as the markets priced in a combination of factors ranging from geopolitical tensions to highly important figures which has seen volatility increase and caused markets to plunge towards the end of the week.

The week began on a positive note with European and U.S. markets gaining further ground as a thin economic calendar resulted in little catalyst or significant direction. The only notable piece of data that was released on Monday was U.S. Pending Home Sales which failed to beat expectations and came in at -1.1%. By mid-afternoon at the beginning of the week, stocks had begun to trade relatively flat, pausing from a bullish two weeks in Europe.

Over in Asia, Japanese retail sales declined quicker than forecasted which puts further pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Sales also disappointed, falling 0.6 percent from the previous year whilst second quarter sales slumped by 7 percent.

Global stocks advanced on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve statement due out on Wednesday. The Dow Jones broke back through the key resistance level of 17,000, closing just shy of this level. Similarly, the FTSE 100 and the German Dax both advanced further. Data from around the globe was again thin on Tuesday with CB Consumer Confidence the only notable piece of data, advancing 90.9 from the forecasted figure of 85.5.

Wednesday was the day when volatility began to significantly pick up as a packed economic calendar combined with escalating tensions around the globe and the Federal Reserve statement gave investors an increased risk appetite. German prelim CPI figures kick-started the day which came in better than expected at 0.3%. Shortly following this, U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment change came in worse than expected at 218k.

The US economy was reported to have bounced back to life on Wednesday, finally managing to get over the harsh winter which seriously impacted the economy. Gross Domestic Product grew by a massive 4%, the biggest growth in a decade. Shortly after the GDP figure, the Federal Open Markets Committee released their statement concluding their two-day meeting which shows, as expected, a further $10bn taper to its bond purchasing programme – bringing it down to $25bn per month and staying on track to end QE by October. With the sharp pickup in the economy, investors will now be keeping a close eye on Janet Yellen to see if they can gauge any idea as to when an increase in interest rates will be put into place.

Thursday is the day investors will remember; the day which turned into a blood bath in global markets. The German Dax fell sharply throughout the day, ending down 186 points whilst the Dow Jones followed suit, dumping a massive 317 points off the index – its worst daily fall since February. Thursday also was a day of figures with EUR flash estimate coming in at 0.4% shortly followed by US unemployment claims which came in at 302k. Friday's non-farm figure came in at 209k, slighly worse than expected which continued the markets' downward trajectory.

Stock of the week: Twitter

Shares in Twitter soared over 35% this week as better-than-expected results were released. Their monthly active users beat expectations, reported at 271 million for the quarter beating estimates of 265 million. The social media giant also beat expectations on the advertising side of the business, posting $312m in Q2 sales which is a 124% increase on last year.

 

UK100 Chart

Open (Monday)

6806

Close (Thursday)

6722

Change

-1.2%

High

6834

Low

6714

WallStreet Chart

Open (Monday)

16964

Close (Thursday)

16557.5

Change

-2.3%

High

17059.5

Low

16552.5

Gold Chart

Open (Monday)

1306

Close (Thursday)

1283

Change

-1.7%

High

1314

Low

1282

Cable Chart

Open (Monday)

1.6978

Close (Thursday)

1.6883

Change

-0.5%

High

1.6995

Low

1.6858

Economic Data

Monday

- AUD Retail Sales
- GBP Construction PMI

Tuesday

- AUD Cash Rate
- AUD Trade Balance
- AUD RBA Rate Statement
- GBP Services PMI

Wednesday

- GBP Manufacturing Production
- USD Trade Balance

Thursday

- GBP Asset Purchase Facility
- GBP Official Bank Rate
- GBP MPC Rate Statement
- EUR Minimum Bid Rate
- EUR ECB Press Conference
- USD Unemployment Claims

Friday

- AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
- JPY Monetary Policy Statement

Earnings

Monday

Half Year 2014 Intertek Group PLC Earnings Release
Half Year 2014 esure Group PLC Earnings Release
Half Year 2014 Fidessa Group PLC Earnings Release
Half Year 2014 Keller Group PLC Earnings Release
Interim 2014 Afren PLC Earnings Release
Half Year 2014 Ultra Electronics Holdings PLC Earnings Release
Interim 2014 HSBC Holdings plc Earnings Release
Interim 2014 Alent PLC Earnings Release
Half Year 2014 Telecity Group PLC Earnings Release

Tuesday

Interim 2014 Standard Life PLC Earnings Release
Q2 2014 Inmarsat plc Earnings Release
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC
Interim 2014 InterContinental Hotels Group PLC Earnings Release
Half Year 2014 Aggreko PLC Earnings Release
Novae Group PLC
Half Year 2014 Novae Group PLC Earnings Release
Interim 2014 SDL PLC Earnings Release
Half Year 2014 LSL Property Services PLC Earnings Release
Interim 2014 Hill & Smith Holdings PLC Earnings Release

Wednesday
 
Q3 2014 GW Pharmaceuticals PLC Earnings Release
Grainger PLC Interim Management Statement for the 10 months to 31 July 2014
Interim 2014 Standard Chartered PLC Earnings Release
MillerCoors Trading Update
Q2 2014 Navigator Holdings Ltd Earnings Release

Thursday

Half Year 2014 Aviva PLC Earnings Release
Interim 2014 Old Mutual plc Earnings Release
Londonmetric Property PLC Q1 Interim Management Statement Release
Interim 2014 RSA Insurance Group PLC Earnings Release
Infinis Energy PLC Interim Management Statement
Interim 2014 Savills PLC Earnings Release
Half Year 2014 Amec PLC Earnings Release
Interim 2014 Spirax-Sarco Engineering PLC Earnings Release
Interim 2014 Kennedy Wilson Europe Real Estate PLC Earnings Release

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