Weekly Trading Update

28.03.13 Thursday Morning



This week will likely be remembered for a tug-of-war between bulls and bears as investors were unsure as to whether Cyprus avoiding being forced out of the Euro is necessarily a bad thing.

Monday began with a boom as investors were buoyed by news that officials had reached an agreement to keep Cyprus afloat. The deal, in essence, involved the closure of the nations’ second biggest bank as well as wealthy investors bearing the brunt of some of the losses. However, less wealthy investors were to be protected. Nevertheless, the optimism over the deal proved short-lived and the bears retook control of sentiment as traders realised that pushing the debt from one bank to another despite taking a haircut in the process, would not save the debt-ridden nation.

Tuesday was a good day for opportunistic traders which explained the markets moving higher on the open and continued to do so even in the face of poor data from the US which showed core durable goods orders dropped. In addition, consumer confidence and new home sales from the US were also disappointing and yet investors continued to buy, buy and buy. This led to the Dow Jones hitting a new record high on the close.

Midweek was largely tame as many of the markets traded flatly. Final GDP figures from the UK were in line with expectations which helped to support sentiment where as poor current account figures did the opposite.

At the time of writing, the last trading day of the week was uneventful. Despite the fact that Cyprus reopened their banks on Thursday, albeit with a stipulation that customers can only withdraw set amounts, the markets generally seemed tame. Data from the US showed that weekly unemployment claims came in worse than expected. However, given the fact that Cypriot citizens are not rioting over the stipulation on withdrawals the markets clearly perceive this to be a step in the right direction as it places less pressure on officials to try and flex the measures in order to gain political points.

Thus, at least for now, all seems well in the Eurozone.


UK100 Chart

Open (Monday)

6427

Close (Thursday)

6388

Change

0.60%

High

6459

Low

6342

WallStreet Chart

Open (Monday)

14510

Close (Thursday)

14521

Change

0.08%

High

14589

Low

14393

Gold Chart

Open (Monday)

1607.6

Close (Thursday)

1605.8

Change

-0.11%

High

1614.4

Low

1590.8

Cable Chart

Open (Monday)

1.5232

Close (Thursday)

1.5143

Change

-0.58%

High

1.5236

Low

1.5096

Next week, European equities will be closed on Monday but the US will continue as normal. There is also a raft of data out next week including manufacturing data from China, Spanish unemployment rate as well as the market-moving US nonfarm data on Friday. As a result, although traders may get a break from the calamity of the Eurozone, this could easily be replaced with concerns over US growth if the markets are faced with a poor figure.

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