Andrew Mount's Racing Tips - 20.05.24

Andrew bids to start the new week on a high with two recommended bets/trades at Redcar and Carlisle on Monday, May 20th.

REDCAR DOUBLE DRAW

As a general rule it pays to be drawn low at Redcar, especially on the straight course when the ground rides good or faster. Since the start of 2016, backing all runners drawn in stalls 1 and 2, regardless of trip, would have found 263 winners from 2000 bets (13.2% strike-rate) and while we’d have made a loss by backing them blind at SP, taking an early price would have realised a profit of £348.93 (+17.5% on turnover). In the same period, those drawn in stall 8 or higher were 229 from 3588 (6.4%) for a loss of £1312.49 to a £1 level stake at SP (-36.6% on turnover). Even taking the best evening price the night before racing with a bestodds guaranteed concession couldn’t have turned that loss into a profit and, with the ground on the quick side, a sell of DOUBLE DRAW looks warranted at today’s meeting.

Recommendation: Sell DOUBLE DRAW at Redcar

CARLISLE 8.00

The Dianne Sayer-trained REDARNA understandably heads the betting for this 1m handicap based on his last-time-out fourth in the Thirsk Hunt Cup but stablemate DETECTIVE looks more interesting, despite the nagging concern that he might still need one more run before reaching peak fitness. The eight-year-old won this race two years ago, also finished second in it 12 months ago and had a full Carlisle record of 12112222120221523542 (5-20). He’s clearly not the force of old but should be finishing to good effect and might be able to give his shorter-priced stablemate a fright. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.

Recommendation: Back DETECTIVE in Carlisle 8.00

Please note that the picks recommended in this blog post are based on past performance and should not be considered a guarantee for future winning outcomes, and it is important to remember that spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit. The views within this preview are those of Andrew Mount, professional tipster and journalist, and not those of Spreadex.