England face their latest watershed moment on Wednesday evening (Thursday morning if you’re being picky) when they take on Japan in the World Cup semi-final at 12am on BBC One.

The opponent for whoever wins this evening’s game has already been decided; in perhaps the most eagerly anticipated match of the tournament (at least for partisan supporters) world no. 2s the USA beat world no. 1s Germany 2-0. A missed penalty from current tournament top scorer Celia Sasic could have changed the tide of the game when it was still 0-0, but a converted penalty 11 minutes later by America’s Carli Lloyd (her 3rd of the tournament) and a late in the game goal from Kelley O’Hara saw the USA reach a record-breaking 4th World Cup final.



The USA will be going into the final looking to lift the cup for the first time since 1999, and they have a truly phenomenal history at the tournament. The lowest position they have ever come is 3rd (which they have done 3 times), coming 2nd once and winning it twice; understandably this leaves the USA as odds on favourites at 1/4 with a very high Women’s World Cup Index spread of 93-95 (where the winner receives 100 points, the runner-up 75 and the losing semi-finalist 50).

Turning to the unresolved semi-final, and England are facing their toughest test yet in the shape of 2011 champions Japan. Japan are second only to the USA in the stinginess stakes, conceding only 2 goals in their 5 victories in the tournament so far, and go into the semi-final at a Women’s World Cup Index spread of 69-72 with fixed odds of 4/1. Granted, Japan did have one of the easier group draws, facing Cameroon, Switzerland and Ecuador; regardless, they breezed through to the last 16, where they met the Netherlands.



An injury time goal from the Dutch couldn’t stall the efficient Japanese machine, and they marched on to a quarter-final with tournament dark horses Australia. A tense, tight game was broken in the 87th minute, with only a goal from Bayern Munich’s Mana Iwabuchi, nicknamed Japan’s ‘brightest flower’, separating the 2 sides.

Japan will be aiming to match Germany’s back-to-back victories (in 2003 and 2007) by reaching the final and beating the USA as they did in 2011. However, they face a plucky England side that are only growing in strength, and who should provide more than a fair fight on Wednesday night. Regardless of whether they reach the final or not, this tournament has been a milestone for women’s football in England, something reflected in widespread support for the side and the impressive viewing figures that got their games shifted from BBC Three to BBC One.

A scrappy performance against hosts Canada saw England reach their furthest point at a Women’s World Cup ever, and the furthest point for an international England side, men’s or women’s, in a major international competition since 1996. However, England didn’t necessarily look convincing following their 2 early goals in the quarter-final and benefited from some incredibly sloppy Canadian defending.



Not to take away from those goals; a mistake from Lauren Sesselmen allowed Jodie Taylor to put away a superb finish on her first start since coming back from injury, leaving her at a Super Mega Player Goal Minutes spread of 12-16. Similarly, lifeless marking allowed right-back Lucy Bronze to nab her 2nd goal of the tournament (both importantly in the knockout stages) and puts her at a Super Mega spread of 2.5-5.

Yet after having conceded every game England could be in trouble if their opponents manage to score, due to Japan’s notorious tightness at the back. This puts England at a Women’s World Cup spread of 59-62 with fixed odds of 10/1, both comfortably the worst of the remaining 3 sides. After surprising the world in 2011, Japan are no underdogs now, and go into the game at a Japan/England Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.3-0.5, with a very low Total Goals spread of 1.95-2.15.