Sports Blog 01/07/2015: FIFA Women’s World Cup Semi-Final preview – Japan vs England, Wednesday 1st July 2015

England face their latest watershed moment on Wednesday evening (Thursday morning if you’re being picky) when they take on Japan in the World Cup semi-final at 12am on BBC One.

The opponent for whoever wins this evening’s game has already been decided; in perhaps the most eagerly anticipated match of the tournament (at least for partisan supporters) world no. 2s the USA beat world no. 1s Germany 2-0. A missed penalty from current tournament top scorer Celia Sasic could have changed the tide of the game when it was still 0-0, but a converted penalty 11 minutes later by America’s Carli Lloyd (her 3rd of the tournament) and a late in the game goal from Kelley O’Hara saw the USA reach a record-breaking 4th World Cup final.



The USA will be going into the final looking to lift the cup for the first time since 1999, and they have a truly phenomenal history at the tournament. The lowest position they have ever come is 3rd (which they have done 3 times), coming 2nd once and winning it twice; understandably this leaves the USA as odds on favourites at 1/4 with a very high Women’s World Cup Index spread of 93-95 (where the winner receives 100 points, the runner-up 75 and the losing semi-finalist 50).

Turning to the unresolved semi-final, and England are facing their toughest test yet in the shape of 2011 champions Japan. Japan are second only to the USA in the stinginess stakes, conceding only 2 goals in their 5 victories in the tournament so far, and go into the semi-final at a Women’s World Cup Index spread of 69-72 with fixed odds of 4/1. Granted, Japan did have one of the easier group draws, facing Cameroon, Switzerland and Ecuador; regardless, they breezed through to the last 16, where they met the Netherlands.



An injury time goal from the Dutch couldn’t stall the efficient Japanese machine, and they marched on to a quarter-final with tournament dark horses Australia. A tense, tight game was broken in the 87th minute, with only a goal from Bayern Munich’s Mana Iwabuchi, nicknamed Japan’s ‘brightest flower’, separating the 2 sides.

Japan will be aiming to match Germany’s back-to-back victories (in 2003 and 2007) by reaching the final and beating the USA as they did in 2011. However, they face a plucky England side that are only growing in strength, and who should provide more than a fair fight on Wednesday night. Regardless of whether they reach the final or not, this tournament has been a milestone for women’s football in England, something reflected in widespread support for the side and the impressive viewing figures that got their games shifted from BBC Three to BBC One.

A scrappy performance against hosts Canada saw England reach their furthest point at a Women’s World Cup ever, and the furthest point for an international England side, men’s or women’s, in a major international competition since 1996. However, England didn’t necessarily look convincing following their 2 early goals in the quarter-final and benefited from some incredibly sloppy Canadian defending.



Not to take away from those goals; a mistake from Lauren Sesselmen allowed Jodie Taylor to put away a superb finish on her first start since coming back from injury, leaving her at a Super Mega Player Goal Minutes spread of 12-16. Similarly, lifeless marking allowed right-back Lucy Bronze to nab her 2nd goal of the tournament (both importantly in the knockout stages) and puts her at a Super Mega spread of 2.5-5.

Yet after having conceded every game England could be in trouble if their opponents manage to score, due to Japan’s notorious tightness at the back. This puts England at a Women’s World Cup spread of 59-62 with fixed odds of 10/1, both comfortably the worst of the remaining 3 sides. After surprising the world in 2011, Japan are no underdogs now, and go into the game at a Japan/England Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.3-0.5, with a very low Total Goals spread of 1.95-2.15.