Football betting – how to try and net from punts on penalties

Steven Gerrard was spot on at Upton Park on Sunday as he despatched two penalties to keep Liverpool’s title charge on track in a 2-1 win against West Ham.

In fact the goals were Gerrard’s ninth and tenth from 12-yards so far this season and only Andrew Johnson (with 11 penalties scored in the 2004-05 campaign) has netted more penalties in one season in the top flight than the Liverpool skipper.

Liverpool themselves have taken 12 penalties in total so far this season – only bettered by Crystal Palace with 13 in that 2004-05 season mentioned above. And with 97 spot-kicks scored in total in the Premier League, only Chelsea have netted as many penalties as Liverpool during the same time period.

So while many casual observers may be asking ‘why do Liverpool get so many spot kicks?’, those looking to make money from betting on football may be pondering ‘how can I speculate to accumulate from punts on penalties?’.

Spread betting on penalties v fixed odds betting on penalties

When placing fixed odds bets on penalties in a match, most bookmakers will offer a price on each named team to score a penalty in a match, both teams to score from the spot or neither team to score from 12 yards.

However, when looking at spread betting markets this is where there can be much more volatility and excitement.

One of the most popular markets for betting on penalties on a game is ‘Penalty Goal Minutes’. This is where the spread betting firms will put out a spread for the total number of goal minutes they think there will be from goals scored by penalties in a match.

So before Sunday’s game at the Boleyn, Spreadex were offering a Penalty Goal Minutes spread of 14 – 17. Punters who bought at 17 would have made 98 times their stake after Gerrard stroked home from the spot in the 44th and 71st minute for a make-up of 115. Indeed Spreadex had some clients who bought for £50 at 17, netting a tidy profit of £4,900 ((115 – 17) x £50).

It is important to remember though that spread betting differs from fixed odds betting in that you can lose more than your original stake size should your bet go against you. So imagine that no penalties were actually scored in the West Ham v Liverpool game, then those clients placing a £50 buy at 17 stood to lose £850 in a worst case scenario ((0 – 17) x £50).

If you wanted to bet on penalties in a game and still wanted something of a safety net in case the spot kick was saved, you can bet on Penalty Performance on the spreads. This is where spread firms award 25 points per penalty scored and 10 points per penalty taken, but saved.

For Sunday’s game, Spreadex’s spread was 7.4 – 8.9. The marked eventually made up at 50, but even if Adrian had saved one of the penalties it would still have made up at 35 and resulted in profits for buyers.

To bet on penalties over groups of games, e.g. across all 10 matches of Premier League weekend, you can buy or sell on the spread for Total Penalties Scored or Total Penalty Goal Minutes.

Penalties can also make up part of the spread offered by sports spread betting firms for Match Performance. This is a spread based on points being awarded for different things happening in a match: Goal = 15, Corner = 3, Yellow card = 5, Red card = 15, Penalty awarded = 10, 0-0 draw = -25.

Betting on penalty shoot outs

For cup competitions which go to penalty shoot outs there is even more punting fun to be had. Here there are a multitude of spread betting markets to choose from including Total Penalties Taken, Total Penalties Scored, Team A Penalties Scored, Team B Penalties Scored, X-Penalties Scored (Team A penalties scored multiplied by Team B penalties scored), Penalty Supremacy (winning margin in goals of one team over the other after the shoot out), Stop at a Penalty Miss (how many penalties are taken until one team misses) and Penalty Performance for each kick (based on 25 points if penalty scored, 10 points if saved and 0 if missed).

So if tonight’s Chelsea v Paris St Germain Champions League quarter-final second leg goes all the way to a shoot out you know where to turn to for some additional penalty punting!

Long-term penalty betting on football

For longer-term penalty betting you can also play the Season Converted Penalties market where the spread firms predict how many penalties will be scored over the full Premier League season. This market is updated throughout the season so you can open and close bets as the season progresses.

Before the start of this campaign, Spreadex were predicting between 77 and 80 spot kicks to be netted over the full season. So far 63 have been converted from 75 taken, that’s an 84% success rate, which is the best conversion rate since the 2002-03 season as shown by the table below:

Premier League Season	Penalties Taken	Penalties Scored	% success rate
2012-13	83	66	79.52%
2011-12	99	71	71.72%
2010-11	101	79	78.22%
2009-10	106	85	80.19%
2008-09	83	67	80.72%
2007-08	82	61	74.39%
2006-07	105	84	80.00%
2005-06	73	56	76.71%
2004-05	74	62	83.78%
2003-04	79	66	83.54%
2002-03	64	55	85.94%

So whether or not the number eventually comes in lower or higher than the pre-season spread remains to be seen. But with Gerrard, Frank Lampard, Leighton Baines, Rickie Lambert and Wayne Rooney all among the players to net from 12 yards for their clubs so far this term, at least Roy Hodgson may be slightly more optimistic should England get dragged into a dreaded shoot out in Brazil during the World Cup this summer…