Sports Spread Betting Blog 08/05/2015: Weekend Premier League betting preview

All the attention has been on calamity club Newcastle in recent weeks, but the spreads suggest the terrible Toon should escape the dreaded drop.

While it may be dull at the top of the Premier League from a betting point of view, at the bottom it’s still a bunfight with Burnley, QPR, Sunderland, Leicester, Hull and the aforementioned Geordies all trying to avoid the trapdoor.

Spreadex’s Relegation Spread Betting Index is based on the bottom club at the end of the season being awarded 50 points, the second bottom side 25 and third bottom side 10.

And our traders have seemingly written off Burnley and QPR with spreads of 38 – 41 and 33 – 36 respectively while Sunderland are fancied to take the third relegation spot with a spread of 5 – 8 ahead of Leicester, Hull and Newcastle, who are all given spreads of 1 – 3.



The Black Cats start off the weekend’s action as Everton v Sunderland kicks-off at 12.45pm on BT Sport 1 on Saturday.

Everton’s home form has been much improved since the turn of the year with the Toffees unbeaten in 11 at Goodison Park since a 1-0 home defeat to Stoke on Boxing Day.

Sunderland, by contrast, have only won once in their last 11 matches away from home in the league so the stats would suggest a home win.

Spreadex’s spread betting Goal Supremacy quote is Everton/Sunderland 0.65 – 0.85 and to the casual observer this may not seem like a big enough margin given the teams’ respective league positions and recent form.

However, punters seem to sniff something in the air and are perhaps remembering Sunderland’s remarkable run of results at the end of last season that saw them pull off a dramatic escape to safety.

So that may explain why we’ve seen sellers on the Goal Supremacy quote at 0.65 (indicating clients think Sunderland will get a draw or win the game) and sellers of Time of 1st Sunderland Goal at 62 (indicating they think Sunderland will score and that their opening goal will come before the 62nd minute).



Hull, Leciester and Newcastle are all at home with 3pm kick-offs and our traders give Hull the best chance of picking up points against a Burnley side that have only scored once in their last nine games thanks to a Hull/Burnley Goal Supremacy quote of 0.45 – 0.65.

Our traders can’t pick between Leicester and Southampton with a “choice” Goal Supremacy quote of Leicester/Southampton -0.1 – 0.1 basically indicating they think the game is likely to be a draw.

Newcastle, perhaps surprisingly given their eight match losing run and the Baggies’ win at Manchester United last week, are given slight favouritism over West Brom with a Goal Supremacy quote of Newcastle/West Brom 0 – 0.2. However, this price again suggests are traders feel a draw is the more likely result.

Sky may be regretting their choice of match for the 5.30pm TV clash of Crystal Palace v Manchester United on Sky Sports 1 as it pits together two sides who have lost their last three in a row after previously teasing fans with mini revivals.

Indeed the Spreadex traders have this in for a low-looking Total Goals quote of 2.4 – 2.6 hinting that viewers may not be in for the most memorable of spectacles.

Perhaps this is why we’ve seen sellers of Match Performance on a spread of 91 – 96 (market based on 15 points awarded per goal, 3 per corner, 5 per yellow card, 15 per red card, 10 per penalty awarded and minus 25 for a goalless draw).

Looking at Sunday’s games and first up it’s Manchester City v QPR at 1.30pm on Sky Sports 1 in a game that could well condemn the Hoops to the Championship.

Chris Ramsey’s side have won just one in 10 while City have won their last three after something of a wobble.

The Spreadex traders don’t give the visitors a hope with a wide Goal Supremacy price of Man City/QPR 2 – 2.2 but we have seen some sellers on that price indicating they think that a City win may only come by a one goal margin.

That said, our traders and punters alike think there will be goals in this game with Total Goals at a mighty 3.6 – 3.8. Sergio Aguero, with five goals in his last four games, has also been attracting attention with buyers of his Player Goal Minutes at 51 – 55 and on his Super Mega Player Goal Minutes at 89 – 104 (where any second goal minutes are doubled and any third goal minutes are trebled).

At 4pm it’s Chelsea v Liverpool on Sky Sports 1 with the champions looking to put on a show in front of their home fans and the visitors desperately trying to catch Manchester United for a Champions League spot.

Chelsea are unbeaten in 17 while the Reds have lost four of their last eight so the Goal Supremacy quote of Chelsea/Liverpool 0.4 – 0.6 perhaps looks a bit slim and has enticed buyers who believe Chelsea will prevail by at least one goal.

We’ve also had buyers of Chelsea leading minutes on a spread of 25 – 28 meaning punters think Chelsea will be ahead in the game for a period longer than 28 minutes.