Sports Blog 09/09/2015: Tennis Update – US Open, Monday 31st August to Sunday 13th September 2015

With less than a week left until the US Open ends, there have been plenty of shocks and surprise exits leading up to Thursday’s final few quarter-finals.

Women’s Singles

The focus of this year’s US Open remains, undoubtedly, on Serena Williams. Still chasing the first singles calendar Grand Slam since Steffi Graf in 1988, Williams has looked her usual phenomenal self as she stands on the cusp of history. She saw perhaps her biggest wobble of the tournament so far in the third round against the wild card Bethanie Mattek-Sands where she lost the 1st set, only to claw back the 2nd and not drop a game in the 3rd.

Williams then brushed aside the promising Madison Keys in the fourth round to set up a dramatic quarter-final against her sister Venus. A washout of a 2nd set, which the older sister won 6-1, was sandwiched between a dominant performance in the 1st and 3rd to see Serena edge ever closer to that Graf record. Unsurprisingly Williams remains odds on favourite for the title, a 3/10, with easily the best Outright Index spread of 52-54.

Her semi-final opponent has had a similarly interesting US Open, if for very different reasons. Roberta Vinci entered the competition unranked; not to say she is any kind of novice. Vinci has won of all 4 Grand Slam tournaments in a women’s doubles pairing with Sara Errani. Yet her singles career has been less illustrious, with her upcoming semi-final appearance the furthest point she has reached in a singles Grand Slam, besting her back-to-back US Open quarter-final appearances in 2013 and 2013.

She faced 3 unseeded opponents in her first 3 rounds, and was set to face Eugenie Bouchard in the fourth round, only for the Canadian to withdraw following a case of concussion following a locker-room slip. Vinci then beat the similarly unranked Kristina Mladenovic in the quarter-finals to set up the biggest match of her singles career, unenviably against arguably the best woman in tennis’ history. Vinci’s Outright Index spread, at 20.5-22, suggests she might find it hard to get past the wonderful Williams; as does her fixed odds, with her 40/1 a stark contrast to Williams’ price.

Onto the remaining quarter finals, and there still are a few players who could trip up Williams (or indeed Vinci) on her way to the title. First sees Petra Kvitova take on Flavia Pennetta, both already at a 2015 best. Kvitova is the only player left in the women’s draw to have not dropped a single set, beating Laura Siegemund, Nicole Gibbs, Anna Karolina Schmiedlova and Britain’s own Johanna Konta on the way to her furthest position in a Grand Slam tournament since she won Wimbledon in 2014. This quarter-final is also Kvitova’s best ever performance in the US Open, and she goes into the match at an Outright Index spread of 25-28 with 13/2 fixed odds.



Pennetta, who was a beaten quarter-finalist against Serena Williams last year, has perhaps had a tougher tournament than Kvitova. Arguably her toughest match came in the third round, when she defeated Petra Cetkovska (who had knocked out last year’s beaten finalist Caroline Wozniacki) across 3 sets, before beating the Australian Samantha Stosur in the fourth round. The US Open is traditionally her best Grand Slam, being the only tournament where she has reached multiple quarter-finals and a semi-final. However, with the worst fixed odds of 50/1, Pennetta faces an uphill battle, and our traders are facing the more experienced Czech at a Kvitova/Pennetta Match Supremacy spread of 7.5-10.5.

The other remaining quarter final sees Victoria Azarenka face Simona Halep. Azarenka was defeated at this point last year by Ekaterina Makarova, AND was a beaten finalist in 2012 and 2013 (you guessed it, by Serena Williams). The Belarussian has had a mixed 2015 since returning from injury, so a win (or even final spot) at this year’s US Open would be an encouraging way to end a difficult year. She defeated Lucie Hradecka and Yanina Wickmayer in the first and second rounds to set up a choice third round match (for fans at least) against Angelique Kerber. Obviously Azarenka was triumphant, even if she was pushed to 3 sets, going on to breeze past Varvara Lepchenko in the fourth round. She goes into the quarter-final with an Outright Index spread of 25-28 and 13/2 fixed odds.



Despite being ranked 2nd in the world, Halep has struggled in 2015, and faces Azarenka with an Outright Index spread of 17.5-19.5. After a great 2014 (with the US Open a notable blip) Halep has struggled to recapture last year’s form, with a losing quarter-final in the Aussie Open followed by a second round defeat in France and a first round exit at Wimbledon. Yet she has looked good in the US Open so far, with wins over Marina Erakovic, Kateryna Bondarenko and Shelby Roger leading to a resilient victory over Sabine Liscki in the fourth round. Yet her Belarussian opponent has looked the stronger competitor in 2015 (just), leading our traders to offer an Azarenka/Halep Match Supremacy spread of 4.5-7.5.

Men’s Singles

Whilst focus may be on Serena Williams’ potentially history-making progress, the men’s side of the draw has seen plenty drama of its own. Novak Djokovic hasn’t exactly met the toughest opponents in the US Open this year, but still has only dropped 2 sets in his first 5 rounds. The most recent came against Feliciano Lopez (who himself knocked out Milos Raonic) in the quarter-final, with a 2nd second wobble quickly giving way to 3rd and 4th set victories. It leaves the Serbian on track for a strong end to another great (if still French Open-missing) year, one that could see him collect 3 calendar Grand Slams for the first time since 2011. It also means that, as he has been since the start of the tournament, Djokovic goes into his semi as odds on favourite at 4/6 with an Outright Index spread of 48-50.

His opponent is Marin Cilic, last year’s surprise US Open winner, and the victorious party in an intense quarter-final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. That match was the second 5-setter of Cilic’s tournament, the other coming against the unseeded Mikhail Kukushkin in the third round. Sandwiched between those two matches was a solid win over Jeremy Chardy, continuing to suggest that New York might be Cilic’s most fertile ground. However, Djokovic is arguably another level to those who the Croatian has faced so far, and at 18/1 with an Outright Index spread of 22-24 our traders clearly think he may struggle in his semi-final.

The remaining quarter-finals contain a few familiar faces, as well as a couple of notable absences. A third round exit against Fabio Fogini (who was knocked out by Lopez) cemented the worst year of Rafael Nadal’s career in over a decade. Andy Murray, meanwhile, had a similarly frustrating tournament, exiting in the fourth round against the South African Kevin Anderson. In doing so Anderson has reached his furthest ever point in a Grand Slam tournament, and is probably the biggest surprise of this year’s men’s competition. He goes into his quarter-final, however, at a fairly unconvincing Outright Index spread of 15-17 alongside 28/1 fixed odds.



His opponent is the quintessential late-bloomer Stan Wawrinka. An Aussie Open semi-final, a Wimbeldon quarter-final and the French Open title means the Swiss player is already in the midst of his best ever year; a victory over Anderson would see him equal his 2013 US Open semi-final appearance, and cement his position as one of the world’s best. An untroubled tournament so far has seen Wawrinka drop only one set, and he goes into the quarter-final at 9/1 with an Outright Index spread of 20.5-23.5, and favourite for the match at a Wawrinka/Anderson Supremacy spread of 2-5.

The last quarter-final is perhaps an as-expected pairing given their respective sections of the draw, as Richard Gasquet faces Roger Federer. From the beginning of the tournament, the winner of section 7 always looked likely to be either Gasquet or Tomas Berdych, so it was no surprise when the two faced each other in the fourth round. A confident third round win over Bernard Tomic perhaps gave the Frenchman the upper hand, and after a 1st set wobble Gasquet soon found his rhythm, taking the next 3 sets from Berdych 6-3, 6-4, 6-1. However, his quarter-final opponent leaves him with a combination of rather high fixed odds, at 40/1, and a rather low Outright Index spread, at 12-13.5.



Unluckily for Gasquet he is coming up against a resurgent Federer. After a Wimbledon that saw the Swiss maestro hear his all-time best, only to falter in the final, Federer remains the only man to not have dropped a set so far this tournament. Victories over Leonardo Mayer, Steve Darcis, Philipp Kohlschreiber and John Isner puts Federer on track for another US Open semi-final, with the former champion surely eyeing his first final appearance in New York since 2009. Our traders think he can reach the semis, at least, and at 2/1 with an Outright Index spread of 36.5-39.5, Federer has a Match Supremacy spread over Gasquet of 16.5019.5.