Sports Blog 19/01/2016: FA Cup third round replays betting preview; including Aston Villa v Wycombe, Bristol City v West Brom and Bolton v Eastleigh

We all love a good potential FA Cup banana skin, unless you’re a fan of the team watching their step of course. So will Aston Villa and West Brom supporters be cheering or crying after this evening’s third round replays?

It’s hard to believe that Villa, languishing at the foot of the Premier League table, were actually FA Cup finalists last May (even though they did suffer a 4-0 trouncing to Arsenal).

Since that hammering seven and a half months ago, the Villains have only won three competitive matches and fortunes have only very slightly improved since the arrival of Remi Garde – although I suppose it’s hard to see how they could have got any worse.



After Villa picked up a long awaited, and much-needed league win over Crystal Palace just a week ago, can they follow that with another victory under the floodlights this time against League Two Wycombe Wanderers?

The Spreadex traders think Villa will win by a goal with the Goal Supremacy price Villa/Wycombe 0.9 – 1.1. This means anyone buying Villa at 1.1 would need Garde’s men to win by two clear goals to turn a profit – something Villa have not managed to do since March 14th 2015.

This stat doesn’t seem to have deterred spread betters however as we’ve seen almost one way traffic with clients buying Villa’s Supremacy price as well as on the 25:10 Index (25 points awarded for a Villa win, 10 for a draw on 90 minutes) on a spread of 17 – 18.5.

In fact the support for Villa in the betting doesn’t stop there, with plenty of buyers on their binary price of 57.8 – 63.7 (makes up 100 if Villa win, 0 if they don’t) and sellers of Time of 1st Villa Goal at 44 and 2nd Villa Goal at 71 (meaning punters think Villa’s first goal will come before the 44th minute and second goal will come before the 71st minute).

So if the betting doesn’t suggest a shock at Villa Park, how about at Ashton Gate, where Bristol City host West Brom?

The spreads suggest this will be a tighter affair with the visitors the slight favourites on a Goal Supremacy price of West Brom/Bristol City (h) 0.15 – 0.35.

However Spreadex clients don’t seem to be giving the Robins much support with plenty of buyers for West Brom, suggesting a win by at least a goal for Tony Pulis’ side. Saido Berahino has also been attracting some interest with buyers on his Player Goal Minutes and Super Mega Player Goal Minutes spread.

Of tonight’s other FA Cup replays Bolton host the only remaining non-league side left in the competition in the shape of Eastleigh, who were only denied victory at the first time of asking after a dramatic last-gasp Trotters leveller.

Punters again don’t sense much of a chance of an upset with plenty of backers for Neil Lennon’s side on a Goal Supremacy spread of Bolton/Eastleigh 0.75 – 0.95, meaning they would need the hosts to win by at least a goal to turn a small profit.