Why Manchester United are the worst team in the Premier League. And Everton are the best.

It’s official. Manchester United are the worst team in the Premier League.

And Everton – the team of course that David Moyes vacated to take the Old Trafford hot seat – are the best.

Well, this isn’t strictly true if you look at the actual Premier League table, where both sides currently sit sixth and seventh respectively on 45 points apiece.

But it’s a cold, hard fact if you look at the top flight sides in terms of their performance this season compared to the expectations of the bookies, in particular Spreadex.

The bookies, as most people will testify, are usually fairly accurate in their predictions. Not always, but more often than not.

So comparing all the Premier League clubs’ results so far against their expected performances gives a pretty accurate indication of which clubs (and managers) are doing a good job. And which clubs (and managers) are doing a frankly rubbish job.

And bottom of the pile, ahead of Fulham and West Brom in the “Bookies’ Expected Performance Relegation Zone” sit once-mighty Manchester United, whose miserable season was compounded by the pitiful midweek 2-0 Champions League reverse at Olympiakos last night.

Leading the way at the top of the over-performing sides it’s Everton, just ahead of near-neighbours Liverpool in second and Hull City in third.

The full Premier League table based on teams’ performances so far in comparison to their pre-season Spreadex Points Prediction, reads as thus:

Team	Pre-season Points spread	Pre-season midpoint	Current Points spread	Current midpoint	Difference
Everton	52 - 53.5	52.75	64.5 - 66	65.25	12.5
Liverpool	64.5 - 66	65.25	75.5 - 77	76.25	11
Hull	33 - 34.5	33.75	41.5 - 43	42.25	8.5
Southampton	45 - 46.5	45.75	53 - 54.5	53.75	8
Newcastle	45 - 46.5	45.75	52 - 53.5	52.75	7
Arsenal	71.5 - 73	72.25	78.25 - 79.75	79	6.75
Crystal Palace	30 - 31.5	30.75	35.75 - 37.25	36.5	5.75
Chelsea	79.5 - 81	80.25	82.5 - 84	83.25	3
Spurs	66 - 67.5	66.75	68.5 - 70	69.25	2.5
Man City	81 - 82.5	81.75	82 - 83.5	82.75	1
Stoke	40 - 41.5	40.75	39.5 - 41	40.25	-0.5
West Ham	43 - 44.5	43.75	42 - 43.5	42.75	-1
Norwich	39.5 - 41	40.25	37.5 - 39	38.25	-2
Swansea	44 - 45.5	44.75	41.5 - 43	42.25	-2.5
Aston Villa	43 - 44.5	43.75	39 - 40.5	39.75	-4
Cardiff	37 - 38.5	37.75	31.5 - 33	32.25	-5.5
Sunderland	42 - 43.5	42.75	35.75 - 37.25	36.5	-6.25
West Brom	44 - 45.5	44.75	36.5 - 38	37.25	-7.5
Fulham	42 - 43.5	42.75	32 - 33.5	32.75	-10
Man United	78 - 79.5	78.75	66.5 - 68	67.25	-11.5

Let’s explain in a bit more detail, how this is calculated.

At the start of every season the spread betting firms put out their popular Premier League Points markets, which provide a spread on how many points they think each side will end the season on.

Punters can analyse the spread betting firms’ predictions against their own views and then buy or sell accordingly if they think certain teams will do better or worse than the bookmakers’ spread.

So for example, Spreadex’s Points Predictions on Manchester United and Everton at the start of the season were 78 - 79.5 and 52 - 53.5 respectively.

So if wily spread betters had sold Manchester United’s points for £10 a point at 78 (and many did!) and bought Everton points at £10 a point for 53.5 (not quite so many did) they could close out for a tidy £210 profit right now given United’s current quote has plummeted to 66.5 - 68 and Everton’s spread has jumped to 64.5 - 66 (((78 – 68) x £10) + ((64.5 – 53.5) x £10)) = £210).

Of course for those who bought United points at 79.5 at the start of the season and for those who sold Everton points at 52 before the start of the campaign, they’d be looking at losses of 27 x their original stake if they closed out both bets right now.

So while winning any silverware this season seems out of the question for Moyes and co (United are 300/1 to win the Premier League and 40/1 to win the Champions League with Spreadex), the Red Devils are still favourites to pip Everton to sixth spot and claim a place in the Europa League (United are currently 4/11 to secure a top 6 finish and Everton 10/11).

But let’s be honest, given Liverpool’s resurgence this season with no second-rate European club competition to distract them, if Moyes does once again perform below the bookies’ expectations and finish in seventh place or lower, at least this will probably be one failure actually cheered by the United faithful for a change.