With a slender lead to protect, Jurgen Klopp will be aiming to reach his first English cup final when his Liverpool host Stoke at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 1 this Tuesday evening.

Barring that 1-0 win in Stoke in early January 2016 hasn’t been too kind to Liverpool. The Reds lost their first game of the year to West Ham 2-0, following that up with a thrilling 3-3 draw against Arsenal and a 1-0 loss against Manchester United. However, things (sort of) turned around last weekend, with a goal from Adam Lallana allowing Liverpool to claw back an astonishing 5-4 win over Norwich in the 95th minute.

Now, conceding 4 goals to the 17th place Canaries is hardly cause for celebration; neither is the fact that the Reds had to fight back from behind twice across the match, at one point being down 3-1. However, the fact that they did fight back is a significant bonus, and the side’s stressed German manager will be hoping his team can carry that spirit into the 2nd leg of their League Cup semi-final.



Yet Stoke are far from out of the tie, even if they have gotten off to a similarly shaky start to 2016. Only 1 point behind Liverpool in 9th place (with Southampton separating the two League Cup rivals), the Potters have lost 2 (their first game in January against West Brom and last weekend against league leaders Leicester), drawn 1 (at home against Arsenal) and 1 win (against Norwich). It’s the kind of middling form Stoke have been in since they got over their disastrous start to the season at the end of September, yet the kind of form that still allows the Potters to be 4 points away from a place in Europe in this topsy turvy season.

To overcome Stoke’s stingy defence (one of the best in the Premier League) Klopp will need the sporadically competent Christian Benteke, at a Super Mega PGM of 40-47, to come good. If not (and that is all too regular an occurrence) than the Reds may be reliant on the rapidly improving Roberto Firmino who, with 4 goals in his last 3 games, sits at a Super Mega PGM of 37-43. In terms of Stoke’s own strike force, Marko Arnautovic and Jonathan Walters are both on 7 goals this season and at Super Mega PGM spreads of 11-15 and 9-12 respectively, whilst Bojan Krkic, on 5 goals, is at a Super Mega spread of 14-18.

Despite being in similar form the Reds appear to have the edge going into Tuesday’s semi-final, Spreadex offering a Liverpool/Stoke Goal Supremacy spread of 0.8-1 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.6-2.8.